Purpose

Climate change affects the geographic and seasonal range of malaria incidence, especially, in poor tropical countries. This paper aims to attempt to conceptualize the potential economic repercussions of such effects with its focus on Ethiopia.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper is conceptual and descriptive in its design. It first reviews existing literature and evidence on the economic burdens of malaria, and the impacts of climate change on malaria disease. It then draws the economic implications of the expected malaria risk under the future climate. This is accompanied by a discussion on a set of methods that can be used to quantify the economic effects of malaria with or without climate change.

Findings

A review of available evidence shows that climate change is likely to increase the geographic and seasonal range of malaria incidence in Ethiopia. The economic consequences of even a marginal increase in malaria risk will be substantial as one considers the projected impacts of climate change through other channels, the current population exposed to malaria risk and the country’s health system, economic structure and level of investment. The potential effects have the potency to require more household and public spending for health, to perpetuate poverty and inequality and to strain agricultural and regional development.

Originality/value

This paper sheds light on the economic implications of climate change impacts on malaria, particularly, in Agrarian countries laying in the tropics. It illustrates how such impacts will interact with other impact channels of climate change, and thus evolve to influence the macro-economy. The paper also proposes a set of methods that can be used to quantify the potential economic effects of malaria. The paper seeks to stimulate future research on this important topic which rather has been neglected.

中文翻译：

---

面对气候变化重新审视疟疾的经济负担：埃塞俄比亚的概念分析

目的

气候变化影响疟疾发病的地理和季节范围，特别是在贫穷的热带国家。本文旨在以埃塞俄比亚为中心，对这种影响的潜在经济影响进行概念化。

设计/方法/方法

本文在设计上具有概念性和描述性。它首先回顾了有关疟疾的经济负担以及气候变化对疟疾的影响的现有文献和证据。然后，它得出了未来气候下预期的疟疾风险的经济影响。随之而来的是对一系列方法的讨论，这些方法可用于量化在有或没有气候变化的情况下疟疾的经济影响。

发现

A review of available evidence shows that climate change is likely to increase the geographic and seasonal range of malaria incidence in Ethiopia. The economic consequences of even a marginal increase in malaria risk will be substantial as one considers the projected impacts of climate change through other channels, the current population exposed to malaria risk and the country’s health system, economic structure and level of investment. The potential effects have the potency to require more household and public spending for health, to perpetuate poverty and inequality and to strain agricultural and regional development.

Originality/value

本文阐明了气候变化对疟疾的经济影响，特别是在热带地区的农业国家。它说明了这些影响将如何与气候变化的其他影响渠道相互作用，从而演变为影响宏观经济。本文还提出了一套可用于量化疟疾潜在经济影响的方法。本文旨在激发人们对该重要话题的进一步研究，而这一重要话题却被忽略了。