Recent dramatic and deadly increases in global wildfire activity have increased attention on the causes of wildfires, their consequences, and how risk from wildfire might be mitigated. Here we bring together data on the changing risk and societal burden of wildfire in the United States. We estimate that nearly 50 million homes are currently in the wildland–urban interface in the United States, a number increasing by 1 million houses every 3 y. To illustrate how changes in wildfire activity might affect air pollution and related health outcomes, and how these linkages might guide future science and policy, we develop a statistical model that relates satellite-based fire and smoke data to information from pollution monitoring stations. Using the model, we estimate that wildfires have accounted for up to 25% of PM_2.5 (particulate matter with diameter <2.5 μm) in recent years across the United States, and up to half in some Western regions, with spatial patterns in ambient smoke exposure that do not follow traditional socioeconomic pollution exposure gradients. We combine the model with stylized scenarios to show that fuel management interventions could have large health benefits and that future health impacts from climate-change–induced wildfire smoke could approach projected overall increases in temperature-related mortality from climate change—but that both estimates remain uncertain. We use model results to highlight important areas for future research and to draw lessons for policy.

最近全球野火活动急剧且致命的增加，引起了人们对野火原因、后果以及如何减轻野火风险的关注。在这里，我们汇集了有关美国野火风险和社会负担不断变化的数据。我们估计，美国目前有近 5000 万户住宅位于荒地与城市交界处，这一数字每 3 年增加 100 万户。为了说明野火活动的变化如何影响空气污染和相关的健康结果，以及这些联系如何指导未来的科学和政策，我们开发了一个统计模型，将基于卫星的火灾和烟雾数据与污染监测站的信息联系起来。使用该模型，我们估计近年来美国各地PM _2.5 （直径 <2.5 μm 的颗粒物）中高达 25% 是由野火造成的，在一些西部地区这一比例高达一半，并具有环境烟雾的空间模式不遵循传统社会经济污染暴露梯度的暴露。我们将该模型与程式化情景结合起来，表明燃料管理干预措施可以带来巨大的健康益处，并且气候变化引起的野火烟雾对未来健康的影响可能接近气候变化导致的与温度相关的死亡率的预计总体增加，但这两个估计仍然存在不确定。我们使用模型结果来突出未来研究的重要领域并为政策吸取经验教训。