This paper proposes a procedure for managing the risk of reentering space objects and risk assessment methodologies used for the process. The proposed procedure comprises three phases encompassing the whole reentry stages of space objects. Mathematical models for assessing the impact risk of the reentering space objects by utilizing the information available during different risk management phases and the recommended risk analysis results for public communication are presented. The concept of the conditional casualty expectation is proposed as the metric representing the reentry risk and the method to compute its profile is introduced. A case study on the risk management procedure with the dataset on an actual reentry event is conducted to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed procedure.

本文提出了一种用于管理重新进入空间物体的风险的程序以及用于该过程的风险评估方法。拟议的程序包括三个阶段，涵盖了空间物体的整个再进入阶段。提出了数学模型，用于通过利用在不同风险管理阶段可获得的信息来评估重新进入空间物体的冲击风险，以及推荐的风险分析结果以供公众交流。提出了条件伤亡期望的概念，作为代表再入危险性的度量标准，并介绍了计算其轮廓的方法。进行了关于风险管理程序的案例研究，该数据集具有关于实际再入事件的数据集，以证明所提出程序的有效性。