Rapid prediction of deformation behaviors of concrete face rockfill dams (CFRDs) is of great significance in guiding their design and construction. The purpose of this study is to develop robust empirical prediction models with physical significance, which can rapidly predict typical deformation behaviors of CFRDs. Based on 87 case histories of in-service CFRDs, the threshold regression theory is used to develop empirical relationships between three typical deformation indices (maximum crest settlement, maximum internal settlement, and maximum face slab deflection) and six dam-construction-related influencing factors (dam height, intact rockfill strength, foundation behavior, valley shape factor, void ratio, and operation time). The internal correlations between the deformation behavior and influencing factors are discussed. The importances of the influencing factors for each deformation behavior are quantitatively evaluated. The threshold regression models are developed to predict typical deformation behaviors of CFRDs. The developed models are compared with the existing methods to discuss their rationality and accuracy.

快速预测混凝土面板堆石坝（CFRD）的变形行为对指导其设计和施工具有重要意义。这项研究的目的是开发具有物理意义的可靠的经验预测模型，该模型可以快速预测CFRD的典型变形行为。根据在役CFRD的87个案例历史，使用阈值回归理论来建立三种典型变形指标（最大波峰沉降，最大内部沉降和最大面板变形）与六个与大坝施工相关的影响因素之间的经验关系（大坝高度，完整的堆石强度，地基行为，山谷形状系数，空隙率和运行时间）。讨论了变形行为与影响因素之间的内在联系。定量评估每种变形行为的影响因素的重要性。建立了阈值回归模型以预测CFRD的典型变形行为。将开发的模型与现有方法进行比较，以讨论其合理性和准确性。