Abstract Although prediction is a stated goal of leisure constraints and constraint negotiation research, to date, empirical studies have solely focused on statistical explanation when comparing competing models. Our research, therefore, examined the predictive power of five leisure constraint-negotiation models within the context of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA). To do so, we utilized online survey data from 299 Japanese and 286 Euro-Canadian adults and employed partial least squares equation modeling’s (PLS-SEM) predictive function. Our results indicated that the independence model—in which constraints, negotiation, and motivation directly and separately predict participation—demonstrated better predictive power than the four alternatives. This finding was consistent across strenuous, moderate, and mild levels of LTPA and between the two national groups. We discuss the theoretical, practical, and methodological implications of our findings, and call for future research and theory development based on both explanatory and predictive evidence.

中文翻译：

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休闲时间体育活动背景下休闲约束协商模型的预测能力：偏最小二乘结构方程建模方法

摘要 尽管预测是休闲约束和约束协商研究的既定目标，但迄今为止，在比较竞争模型时，实证研究仅侧重于统计解释。因此，我们的研究在休闲时间体育活动 (LTPA) 的背景下检查了五种休闲约束协商模型的预测能力。为此，我们利用了来自 299 名日本人和 286 名欧洲-加拿大成年人的在线调查数据，并采用了偏最小二乘方程模型 (PLS-SEM) 的预测函数。我们的结果表明，独立模型——其中约束、谈判和动机直接和单独预测参与——表现出比四种替代方案更好的预测能力。这一发现在剧烈、中等、和轻度水平的 LTPA 以及两个国家组之间。我们讨论了我们发现的理论、实践和方法学意义，并呼吁基于解释性和预测性证据进行未来的研究和理论发展。