ABSTRACT

Despite the evolving literature on the development benefits of mobile phones, we still know very little about factors that influence their adoption. Using 25 policy variables, we investigate determinants of mobile phone penetration in 49 Sub-Saharan African countries with data for the period 2000–2012. The empirical evidence is based on contemporary and non-contemporary OLS, Fixed Effects, System GMM, and Quantile Regression techniques. The determinants are classified into six policy categories. They are: (i) macroeconomic, (ii) business/bank, (iii) market-related, (iv) knowledge economy, (v) external flows, and (vi) human development. Results are presented in terms of threshold and non-threshold effects. The former has three main implications. First, there are increasing positive benefits in regulation quality, human development, foreign investment, education, urban population density, and Internet penetration. Second, there is evidence of decreasing positive effects from patent applications. Third, increasing damaging influences are established for foreign aid and return on equity. Non-threshold tendencies are discussed. Policy implications are also covered with emphasis on policy syndromes to enhance more targeted implications for worst-performing nations.

摘要

尽管有关移动电话发展优势的文献不断发展，但对于影响其采用的因素，我们仍然知之甚少。我们使用25个政策变量，使用2000-2012年期间的数据调查了49个撒哈拉以南非洲国家/地区的手机普及率决定因素。经验证据基于当代和非当代的OLS，固定效应，系统GMM和分位数回归技术。决定因素分为六个政策类别。它们是：（i）宏观经济，（ii）商业/银行，（iii）与市场有关，（iv）知识经济，（v）外部流动，以及（vi）人的发展。结果以阈值和非阈值效应表示。前者具有三个主要含义。第一，在监管质量，人类发展，外国投资，教育，城市人口密度和互联网普及率方面，正产生越来越多的积极效益。其次，有证据表明专利申请的积极作用正在降低。第三，对外国援助和净资产收益率的破坏力越来越大。讨论了非阈值趋势。政策影响也包括对政策综合症的强调，以增强对表现最差国家的针对性。