ABSTRACT

Development programmes are increasingly supporting inclusive value chains (VC), in which resource-poor farmers are included in commercially viable VC opportunities. Strengthening social capital elements between VC actors is key to improve the farmers’ livelihood. This article presents a novel impact evaluation method called the VC-Lab to assess the effectiveness of such development programmes, including long-term effects. The method is based on a Public Private Partnership (PPP) in the sorghum VC in Kenya. It consists of different components: (1) a VC analysis; (2) games to assess risk attitude and trust relationships between VC actors; and (3) an agent-based model (ABM) to assess the long-term impact. ABM parameter settings are based on the outcomes of the VC analysis and game results. The level of trust of participating farmers delivering to the participating trader is significantly higher than the level of trust of non-participating farmers in their trader. ABM simulations indicate that in the long run the PPP will lead to higher levels of trust and increased income, whereby training is the key intervention mechanisms. The VC-lab proves to be a valuable evaluation tool. Application of the VC-lab to other VCs, to other commodities and in other countries is needed to test wider applicability of the methodology.

摘要

发展计划越来越多地支持包容性价值链（VC），资源贫乏的农民被纳入商业上可行的风险投资机会中。加强风险投资主体之间的社会资本要素是改善农民生计的关键。本文介绍了一种新颖的影响评估方法，称为VC-Lab，用于评估此类开发计划的有效性，包括长期影响。该方法基于肯尼亚高粱VC中的公私合作伙伴关系（PPP）。它由不同的组成部分组成：（1）VC分析；（2）评估风险投资主体之间风险态度和信任关系的游戏；（3）评估长期影响的基于代理的模型（ABM）。ABM参数设置基于VC分析的结果和游戏结果。交付给参与交易者的参与农户的信任度大大高于未参与交易者对交易者的信任度。ABM模拟表明，从长远来看，PPP将导致更高的信任度和收入的增加，而培训是关键的干预机制。VC-lab被证明是有价值的评估工具。需要将风险投资实验室应用于其他风险投资，其他商品和其他国家，以测试该方法的广泛适用性。VC-lab被证明是有价值的评估工具。需要将风险投资实验室应用于其他风险投资，其他商品和其他国家，以测试该方法的广泛适用性。VC-lab被证明是有价值的评估工具。需要将风险投资实验室应用于其他风险投资，其他商品和其他国家，以测试该方法的广泛适用性。