ABSTRACT

This paper looks at the technical issues associated with the representation of Theories of Change and the implications of design choices for the evaluability of those theories. The focus is on the description of connections between events rather than the events themselves, because this is seen as a widespread design weakness. Using examples and evidence from Internet sources six structural problems are described along with their consequences for evaluation. The paper then outlines a range of different ways of addressing these problems that could be used by programme designers, implementers and evaluators. The paper concludes with some caution speculating on why the design problems are so endemic but also pointing a way forward. Four strands of work are identified that CEDIL and DFID could invest in to develop solutions identified in the paper.

摘要

本文着眼于与变革理论的表述有关的技术问题，以及设计选择对这些理论的可评估性的影响。重点是描述事件之间的联系，而不是事件本身，因为这被认为是普遍存在的设计弱点。使用实例和来自互联网的证据，描述了六个结构性问题及其评估结果。然后，本文概述了解决程序设计人员，实施人员和评估人员可以使用的解决这些问题的各种方法。本文以谨慎的思考来总结为什么设计问题如此普遍但又指出了前进的道路。CEDIL和DFID可以投资四方面的工作来开发本文确定的解决方案。