ABSTRACT

How does conflict affect aid? We argue that aid flows do not provide an accurate picture of the aid community’s legacy in conflict countries because aid flows do not inform about aid dependency, which is an often used, but not clearly defined or quantifiable, term. In this paper, we propose a quantifiable concept of aid dependency that is similar to epidemiology’s distinction between incidence (aid flows) and prevalence (aid dependency) rates. We then calculate for a sample of 101 countries their aid dependency levels and show that conflict is a driver of aid dependency. Our aid dependency concept may be useful for estimating the aid community’s necessary commitment in post-conflict countries to prevent the economy from stalling.

摘要

冲突如何影响援助？我们认为，援助流量无法准确反映冲突国家援助界的遗产，因为援助流量无法提供有关援助依赖的信息，援助依赖是一个经常使用的术语，但定义不明确或无法量化。在本文中，我们提出了一种可量化的援助依赖概念，类似于流行病学对发病率（援助流量）和患病率（援助依赖）之间的区分。然后，我们为101个国家/地区的样本计算了其援助依赖水平，并表明冲突是援助依赖的驱动因素。我们的依赖援助概念可能有助于评估冲突后国家中援助界为防止经济停滞而做出的必要承诺。