Purpose

Literature contends that not much is known about smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and the impacts thereof on agricultural practices in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Africa in particular. The purpose of this study is to examine the perceptions of smallholder farmers from Botlokwa (a semi-arid region in South Africa) on climate variability in relation to climatological evidence.

Design/methodology/approach

The study area is in proximity to a meteorological station and comprises mainly rural farmers, involved in rain-fed subsistence agriculture. Focus group discussions and closed-ended questionnaires covering demographics and perceptions were administered to 125 purposely sampled farmers. To assess farmers’ perceptions of climate variability, their responses were compared with linear trend and variability of historical temperature and rainfall data (1985-2015). Descriptive statistics were used to provide insights into respondents’ perceptions.

Findings

About 64% of the farmers perceived climate variability that was consistent with the meteorological data, whereas 36% either held contrary observations or were unable to discern. Age, level of education, farming experience and accessibility to information influenced the likelihood of farmers to correctly perceive climate variability. No significant differences in perception based on gender were observed. This study concludes that coping and adaption strategies of over one-third of the farmers could be negatively impacted by wrong perceptions of climate variability.

Originality/value

This study highlights discrepancies in perceptions among farmers with similar demographic characteristics. To guarantee sustainability of the sector, intervention by government and other key stakeholders to address underlying factors responsible for observed discrepancies is recommended.

中文翻译：

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小农户对气候变化的看法是否得到气候证据的支持？南非半干旱地区的案例研究

目的

文献争辩说，关于小农户对气候变化及其对撒哈拉以南非洲尤其是南非的农业实践的影响知之甚少。这项研究的目的是检验来自Botlokwa（南非半干旱地区）的小农户对气候变化与气候证据的关系的看法。

设计/方法/方法

研究区域靠近气象站，主要包括从事雨养生计农业的农村农民。对125个有针对性的抽样农民进行了焦点小组讨论和涵盖人口统计和观念的封闭式问卷。为了评估农民对气候变化的看法，将他们的反应与历史趋势温度和降雨量数据（1985-2015）的线性趋势和变化进行了比较。描述性统计用于提供对受访者看法的见解。

发现

大约64％的农民认为气候变化与气象数据一致，而36％的农民持相反意见或无法辨别。年龄，受教育程度，耕种经验和获取信息的机会影响了农民正确认识气候变化的可能性。没有观察到基于性别的知觉差异。这项研究得出的结论是，错误认识到气候变异性会对三分之一以上农民的应对和适应策略产生负面影响。

创意/价值

这项研究突出了人口特征相似的农民之间的观念差异。为了保证该行业的可持续性，建议政府和其他主要利益相关者进行干预，以解决造成差异的根本原因。