This paper aims to examine the effects of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, cultivated area and the labour force on the production of cereal crops in Pakistan from the period 1971-2014.,The study used the Johansen cointegration test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and Granger causality test to estimate the long-run cointegration and direction of the relationship between the dependent and independent variables.,The outcomes of the Johansen cointegration test confirmed the existence of a long-term cointegrating relationship between the production of cereal crops, CO2 emissions, energy consumption, cultivated area and the labour force. The results of the long-run coefficients of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, cultivated area and labour force have a positive impact on cereal crops production. The long-run relationships reveal that a 1 per cent increase in CO2 emissions, energy consumption, cultivated area and labour force will increase cereal crops production by 0.20, 0.11, 0.56 and 0.74 per cent, respectively. Moreover, the findings show that there is a bidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions and cultivated area to cereal crops production. Moreover, there is a unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to cereal crops production.,The present study also fills the literature gap for applying the ARDL procedure to examine this relevant issue for Pakistan.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对巴基斯坦谷物作物生产的影响

本文旨在研究1971-2014年期间CO2排放，能源消耗，耕地面积和劳动力对巴基斯坦谷物作物生产的影响。该研究采用Johansen协整检验，自回归分布滞后（ARDL） ）方法和Granger因果关系检验来估计因变量和自变量之间的长期协整关系和方向。Johansen协整检验的结果证实了谷物作物生产之间存在长期协整关系，二氧化碳排放量，能源消耗，耕地面积和劳动力。长期的CO2排放系数，能源消耗，耕地面积和劳动力系数的结果对谷物农作物的产量产生积极影响。长期关系表明，二氧化碳排放量，能源消耗，耕地面积和劳动力的1％增长将分别使谷物作物的产量增加0.20％，0.11、0.56和0.74％。此外，研究结果表明，从二氧化碳排放量和耕地面积到谷物作物的生产存在双向因果关系。此外，从能源消耗到谷物农作物的生产存在单向因果关系。本研究还填补了应用ARDL程序研究巴基斯坦这一相关问题的文献空白。研究结果表明，从二氧化碳排放量和耕地面积到谷物作物的生产存在双向因果关系。此外，从能源消耗到谷物农作物的生产存在单向因果关系。本研究还填补了应用ARDL程序研究巴基斯坦这一相关问题的文献空白。研究结果表明，从二氧化碳排放量和耕地面积到谷物作物的生产存在双向因果关系。此外，从能源消耗到谷物农作物的生产存在单向因果关系。本研究还填补了应用ARDL程序研究巴基斯坦这一相关问题的文献空白。