Previous research demonstrates that the decision to issue international disaster aid depends in part on the political relationship between donor and recipient countries. However, the reverse case—the impact of disaster aid on subsequent relationships—remains largely unexamined. In this paper, I argue that disaster aid promotes reconstruction, reduces investors’ risk perception, and improves disaster victims’ perceptions of the donor state. Together, these factors suggest a subsequent increase in trade between donors and disaster victims. I use error correction models (ECMs) to assess the short- and long-term influence of US disaster aid on trade growth over the 1973–2008 period. My results suggest that an increase in disaster aid often leads to a subsequent increase in bilateral trade considerably larger than the initial aid commitment. I also find, controlling for other determinants of disaster aid, that preexisting trade with the United States is not associated with a victim’s likelihood of receiving US aid. My findings are important for policymakers, suggesting the presence of a material incentive to complement humanitarian imperatives to grant disaster assistance.

中文翻译：

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美国灾难援助和双边贸易增长

先前的研究表明，发放国际灾难援助的决定部分取决于捐助国和受援国之间的政治关系。然而，相反的情况——灾难援助对后续关系的影响——在很大程度上仍未得到审查。在本文中，我认为灾难援助促进了重建，降低了投资者的风险认知，并提高了灾民对捐助国的认知。总之，这些因素表明捐助者和灾民之间的贸易随后会增加。我使用纠错模型 (ECM) 来评估美国灾难援助对 1973 年至 2008 年期间贸易增长的短期和长期影响。我的研究结果表明，灾难援助的增加通常会导致双边贸易的后续增长，远远大于最初的援助承诺。我还发现，控制灾难援助的其他决定因素，与美国的先前贸易与受害者接受美国援助的可能性无关。我的发现对决策者很重要，这表明存在物质激励来补充提供灾难援助的人道主义必要性。