Studies analyzing the popularity of American presidents consistently find that even though casualties drag down approval rates over time, there is a temporarily positive effect in the beginning of the mission (also known as the rally effect). Are these findings generalizable to other advanced industrial Western democracies? This latter question has not yet been answered convincingly because of two issues: studies are either (1) limited to high profile cases (such as the Iraq War) or (2) based on US data only. I examine the effect of rising or falling military casualties on the change in the popularity of governing parties for ten OECD countries using a novel dataset that comprises monthly polling and economic data for these ten countries in the post-Cold War period. My analyses show that governing parties benefit from an increase in military casualties for at least a year but get punished from 4.5 years into the intervention.

中文翻译：

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团结在所有旗帜周围：1990-2014 年军事伤亡对 10 个国家在职民众的影响

分析美国总统受欢迎程度的研究一致发现，尽管伤亡人数会随着时间的推移拖累批准率，但在任务开始时会产生暂时的积极影响（也称为集会效应）。这些发现是否可以推广到其他先进的工业西方民主国家？由于两个问题，后一个问题尚未得到令人信服的回答：研究要么 (1) 仅限于引人注目的案例（例如伊拉克战争），要么 (2) 仅基于美国数据。我使用包含冷战后这十个国家的月度民意调查和经济数据的新数据集，研究了军事伤亡人数上升或下降对 10 个 OECD 国家执政党受欢迎程度变化的影响。