Discussions of risk have assumed that risk must be modeled the same in all cases. This is a mistake. Normally, if people know that those affected by an agent’s choice have conflicting interests, the ex post model should be used. But when the claims of all affected people either align or come close enough to aligning that one group with conflicting claims should waive them for the sake of others, then the ex ante model should be used. Social policy makers may use neither if they are simply affirming that individual choices are permissible.

中文翻译：

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风险和弱聚合：为什么不同的风险模型适合不同类型的案例

对风险的讨论假定在所有情况下都必须对风险进行相同的建模。这是个错误。通常，如果人们知道受代理人选择影响的人有利益冲突，则应使用事后模型。但是，当所有受影响的人的主张一致或接近一致时，有冲突主张的一个群体应该为了其他人而放弃他们，那么就应该使用事前模型。如果社会政策制定者只是确认个人选择是允许的，他们可能不会使用两者。