Divination is found in most human societies, but there is little systematic research to explain (1) why it is persuasive or (2) why divination is required for important collective decisions in many small-scale societies. Common features of human communication and cooperation may help address both questions. A highly recurrent feature of divination is “ostensive detachment,” a demonstration that the diviners are not the authors of the statements they utter. As a consequence, people spontaneously interpret divination as less likely than other statements to be influenced by anyone’s intentions or interests. This is enough to give divination an epistemic advantage compared with other sources of information, answering question 1. This advantage is all the more important in situations where a diagnosis will create differential costs and benefits, for example, determining who is responsible for someone’s misfortune in a small-scale community. Divinatory statements provide a version of the situation that most participants are motivated to agree with, as it provides a focal point for efficient coordination at a minimal cost for almost all participants, which would answer question 2.

中文翻译：

---

为什么要占卜？

大多数人类社会都存在占卜，但几乎没有系统研究来解释 (1) 为什么它具有说服力或 (2) 为什么在许多小规模社会中，重要的集体决策需要占卜。人类交流与合作的共同特征可能有助于解决这两个问题。占卜的一个经常出现的特征是“明示的超然”，这表明占卜者不是他们所说的陈述的作者。结果，人们自发地将占卜解释为比其他陈述更不可能受任何人的意图或兴趣影响。与其他信息来源相比，这足以使占卜具有认知优势，从而回答问题 1。在诊断将产生不同成本和收益的情况下，这种优势尤为重要，例如，确定谁应对小规模社区中某人的不幸负责。占卜陈述提供了大多数参与者有动机同意的情况的版本，因为它为几乎所有参与者提供了以最低成本进行有效协调的焦点，这将回答问题 2。