Drawing on a comprehensive data set consisting of dividend payments, security prices, and stock exchange disclosures, this paper argues that, contrary to common interpretation, potentially damaging government regulations imposed in 1882 cannot explain the retarded development of the nascent British electrical industry in its first decade. Instead, as informed opinion at the time maintained, wildly inflated expectations had by the spring of 1882 driven the publicly-traded security prices of putative electrical enterprises to manifestly unsustainable levels. When initial demand and operating profits failed to meet these grossly extravagant expectations, ?irrational exuberance? quickly turned to equally undisciplined pessimism in a classic case of stock market boom and bust - with predictable consequences, most notably a collapse of subsequent investment and development at a time of great technological ferment, when durable early-mover advantages were being established among electrical manufacturers globally. This debilitating sequence of market boom and bust was further exacerbated by the fact that during the brief boom surprisingly little money was invested in the promising technologies that were available. Technological rather than regulatory risk was the dominant factor in the 1882 electrical debacle, with long lasting consequences.

中文翻译：

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做空未来？资本市场和英国电气工业的兴起，1882-1892

本文利用由股息支付、证券价格和证券交易所披露组成的综合数据集，认为与通常的解释相反，1882 年实施的可能具有破坏性的政府法规无法解释新生的英国电气工业在其第一次发展中的迟缓。十年。相反，正如当时的知情意见所维持的那样，到 1882 年春天，人们过度夸大的预期将假定的电气企业的公开交易证券价格推高至明显不可持续的水平。当最初的需求和营业利润未能满足这些极其奢侈的期望时，“非理性繁荣？在股市繁荣和萧条的经典案例中，迅速转向同样无纪律的悲观主义——后果可预见，最显着的是，在全球电气制造商之间建立持久的先发优势时，随后的投资和开发在技术大爆发的时候崩溃了。在短暂的繁荣期间，令人惊讶的是，在可用的有前途的技术上几乎没有投资，这一事实进一步加剧了市场繁荣和萧条的衰弱序列。技术风险而非监管风险是 1882 年电气崩溃的主要因素，并产生了长期持久的后果。在短暂的繁荣期间，令人惊讶的是，在可用的有前途的技术上几乎没有投资，这一事实进一步加剧了市场繁荣和萧条的衰弱序列。技术风险而非监管风险是 1882 年电气崩溃的主要因素，并产生了长期持久的后果。在短暂的繁荣期间，令人惊讶的是，在可用的有前途的技术上几乎没有投资，这一事实进一步加剧了市场繁荣和萧条的衰弱序列。技术风险而非监管风险是 1882 年电气崩溃的主要因素，并产生了长期持久的后果。