Economic history has recently emphasised the impact of economic shrinking on long-term economic growth, but economic theories do not provide explanations for how and why some countries avoid economic shrinking. In this case study of institutional change in post-independence Indonesia, we examine how the country managed to reduce the frequency of shrinking during the authoritarian regime and beyond. We argue that the state's autonomy, measured by macroeconomic policymaking, and accountability, measured by food security, were two key social capabilities that enabled Indonesia to reduce the frequency of economic shrinking. During this period, the ‘doorstep conditions’ for the transition into a democracy and stable economic growth emerged. More specifically, Indonesia managed to diversify its revenue base and make public resources more available for the broader common good. Loosening the connection between macroeconomic policymaking and elites opened up greater opportunities for the emergence of private enterprises. However, to date, the country is still far from a full-fledged open access society.

中文翻译：

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新兴经济体对经济萎缩的抵御能力：1950-2015 年印度尼西亚社会能力的作用

经济史最近强调了经济萎缩对长期经济增长的影响，但经济理论并未解释一些国家如何以及为何避免经济萎缩。在这个印度尼西亚独立后制度变迁的案例研究中，我们研究了该国如何在威权政权期间及以后设法减少经济萎缩的频率。我们认为，以宏观经济政策制定衡量的国家自主权和以粮食安全衡量的问责制是使印度尼西亚能够减少经济萎缩频率的两个关键社会能力。在此期间，出现了向民主过渡和经济稳定增长的“门槛条件”。进一步来说，印度尼西亚设法使其收入基础多样化，并使公共资源更多地用于更广泛的共同利益。放松宏观经济决策与精英之间的联系，为民营企业的兴起开辟了更大的机遇。然而，迄今为止，该国仍远未成为一个成熟的开放获取社会。