Since the end of the Bretton Woods system, promoting capital account liberalization has been one of the tenants of the IMF. Capital account liberalization was deemed one of the 10 pillars of what was often dubbed the “Washington Consensus.” Yet, things changed drastically with the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. From 2009 to 2012, comments from top IMF officials and staff reports displayed quite clearly that the IMF had revised its position where capital controls could be part of the toolkit. In this paper, we assess the role of the IMF in capital account liberalization from 1995 to 2015. We use a midpoint-inflated ordered probit model to estimate the effects of being under IMF conditionality on capital controls, allowing for different effects for pre- and post-Financial Crisis. We find that the IMF did indeed drive liberalization of capital inflows in the precrisis era, but stopped doing so in the postcrisis period.

中文翻译：

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IMF 条件和资本管制：资本账户自由化到资本流入管理？

自布雷顿森林体系结束以来，推动资本账户自由化一直是IMF的租户之一。资本账户自由化被认为是通常被称为“华盛顿共识”的 10 大支柱之一。然而，随着 2008 年全球金融危机的爆发，情况发生了巨大变化。从 2009 年到 2012 年，IMF 高级官员的评论和工作人员报告非常清楚地表明，IMF 已经修改了其立场，即资本管制可以成为工具包的一部分。在本文中，我们评估了 IMF 在 1995 年至 2015 年资本账户自由化中的作用。我们使用中点膨胀有序概率模型来估计处于 IMF 条件下对资本管制的影响，考虑到不同的影响前和后金融危机。