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Sensitivity enriched multi-criterion decision making process for novel railway switches and crossings − a case study
European Transport Research Review ( IF 5.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-11 , DOI: 10.1186/s12544-020-00467-x
Hitesh C. Boghani , Ramakrishnan Ambur , Marcelo Blumenfeld , Louis Saade , Roger M. Goodall , Christopher P. Ward , Otto Plášek , Neil Gofton , Miquel Morata , Clive Roberts , Roger Dixon

Despite their important role in railway operations, switches and crossings (S&C) have changed little since their conception over a century ago. It stands now that the existing designs for S&C are reaching their maximum point of incremental performance improvement, and only a radical redesign can overcome the constraints that current designs are imposing on railway network capacity. This paper describes the process of producing novel designs for next generation switches and crossings, as part of the S-CODE project. Given the many aspects that govern a successful S&C design, it is critical to adopt multi criteria decision making (MCDM) processes to identify a specific solution for the next generation of switches and crossings. However, a common shortcoming of these methods is that their results can be heavily influenced by external factors, such as uncertainty in criterium weighting or bias of the evaluators, for example. This paper therefore proposes a process based on the Pugh Matrix method to reduce such biases by using sensitivity analysis to investigate them and improve the reliability of decision making. In this paper, we analysed the influences of three different external factors, measuring the sensitivity of ranking due to (a) weightings, (b) organisational and (c) discipline bias. The order of preference of the results was disturbed only to a minimum while small influences of bias were detected. Through this case study, we believe that the paper demonstrates an effective case study for a quantitative process that can improve the reliability of decision making.

中文翻译:

新型铁路道岔和交叉口的灵敏度丰富的多准则决策过程-案例研究

尽管在铁路运营中发挥着重要作用,但自一个多世纪以来,道岔和道口(S&C)的变化却很小。现在看来,S&C的现有设计已达到提高性能的最大点,只有彻底的重新设计才能克服当前设计对铁路网络容量施加的限制。作为S-CODE项目的一部分,本文描述了为下一代开关和交叉路口生产新颖设计的过程。考虑到成功管理S&C设计的许多方面,采用多标准决策(MCDM)流程来为下一代开关和交叉路口确定特定的解决方案至关重要。然而,这些方法的共同缺点是,其结果可能会受到外部因素的严重影响,例如,标准权重的不确定性或评估者的偏见。因此,本文提出了一种基于Pugh矩阵方法的过程,以通过使用敏感性分析来调查偏差并减少决策的可靠性来减少此类偏差。在本文中,我们分析了三个不同外部因素的影响,测量了由于(a)权重,(b)组织和(c)学科偏见而导致的排名敏感性。结果的优先顺序仅被最小化,同时检测到小的偏差影响。通过此案例研究,我们认为本文为定量过程演示了有效的案例研究,可以提高决策的可靠性。例如,标准权重的不确定性或评估者的偏见。因此,本文提出了一种基于Pugh矩阵方法的过程,以通过使用敏感性分析来调查偏差并减少决策的可靠性来减少此类偏差。在本文中,我们分析了三个不同外部因素的影响,测量了由于(a)权重,(b)组织和(c)学科偏见而导致的排名敏感性。结果的优先顺序仅被最小化,同时检测到小的偏差影响。通过此案例研究,我们认为本文为定量过程演示了有效的案例研究,可以提高决策的可靠性。例如,标准权重的不确定性或评估者的偏见。因此,本文提出了一种基于Pugh矩阵方法的过程,以通过使用敏感性分析来调查偏差并减少决策的可靠性来减少此类偏差。在本文中,我们分析了三个不同外部因素的影响,测量了由于(a)权重,(b)组织和(c)学科偏见而导致的排名敏感性。结果的优先顺序仅被最小化,同时检测到小的偏差影响。通过此案例研究,我们认为本文为定量过程演示了有效的案例研究,可以提高决策的可靠性。因此,本文提出了一种基于Pugh矩阵方法的过程,以通过使用敏感性分析来调查偏差并减少决策的可靠性来减少此类偏差。在本文中,我们分析了三个不同外部因素的影响,测量了由于(a)权重,(b)组织和(c)学科偏见而导致的排名敏感性。结果的优先顺序仅被最小化,同时检测到小的偏差影响。通过此案例研究,我们认为本文为定量过程演示了有效的案例研究,可以提高决策的可靠性。因此,本文提出了一种基于Pugh矩阵方法的过程,以通过使用敏感性分析来调查偏差并减少决策的可靠性来减少此类偏差。在本文中,我们分析了三个不同外部因素的影响,测量了由于(a)权重,(b)组织和(c)学科偏见而导致的排名敏感性。结果的优先顺序仅被最小化,同时检测到小的偏差影响。通过此案例研究,我们认为本文为定量过程演示了有效的案例研究,可以提高决策的可靠性。我们分析了三个不同外部因素的影响,测量了由于(a)权重,(b)组织和(c)学科偏见而引起的排名敏感性。结果的优先顺序仅被最小化,同时检测到小的偏差影响。通过此案例研究,我们认为本文为定量过程演示了有效的案例研究,可以提高决策的可靠性。我们分析了三个不同外部因素的影响,测量了由于(a)权重,(b)组织和(c)学科偏见而引起的排名敏感性。结果的优先顺序仅被最小化,同时检测到小的偏差影响。通过此案例研究,我们认为本文为定量过程演示了有效的案例研究,可以提高决策的可靠性。
更新日期:2021-01-11
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