Renewable energy resources, which depend on climate, may be susceptible to future climate change. Here we use climate and integrated assessment models to estimate this effect on key renewables. Future potential and costs are quantified across two warming scenarios for eight technologies: utility-scale and rooftop photovoltaic, concentrated solar power, onshore and offshore wind energy, first-generation and lignocellulosic bioenergy, and hydropower. The generated cost–supply curves are then used to estimate energy system impacts. In a baseline warming scenario, the largest impact is increased availability of bioenergy, though this depends on the strength of CO₂ fertilization. Impacts on hydropower and wind energy are uncertain, with declines in some regions and increases in others, and impacts on solar power are minor. In a future mitigation scenario, these impacts are smaller, but the energy system response is similar to that in the baseline scenario given a larger reliance of the mitigation scenario on renewables.

依赖于气候的可再生能源可能容易​​受到未来气候变化的影响。在这里，我们使用气候和综合评估模型来估计这种对关键可再生能源的影响。未来潜力和成本通过八种技术的两种变暖情景进行量化：公用事业规模和屋顶光伏、聚光太阳能、陆上和海上风能、第一代和木质纤维素生物能源以及水电。然后使用生成的成本供应曲线来估计能源系统的影响。在基线变暖情景中，最大的影响是增加生物能源的可用性，尽管这取决于 CO _2的强度施肥。对水电和风能的影响不确定，部分地区下降，另一些地区增加，对太阳能的影响较小。在未来的缓解情景中，这些影响较小，但鉴于缓解情景对可再生能源的依赖更大，能源系统响应与基线情景相似。