Conflicts between the interests of biodiversity conservation and other human activities pose a major threat to natural ecosystems and human well-being, yet few methods exist to quantify their intensity and model their dynamics. We develop a categorization of conflict intensity based on the curve of conflict, a model originally used to track the escalation and deescalation of armed conflicts. Our categorization assigns six intensity levels reflecting the discourse and actions of stakeholders involved in a given conflict, from coexistence or collaboration to physical violence. Using a range of case studies, we demonstrate the value of our approach in quantifying conflict trends, estimating transition probabilities between conflict stages, and modeling conflict intensity as a function of relevant covariates. By taking an evidence-based approach to quantifying stakeholder behavior, the proposed framework allows for a better understanding of the drivers of conservation conflict development across a diverse range of socioecological scenarios.

中文翻译：

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衡量保护冲突的强度


生物多样性保护利益与其他人类活动之间的冲突对自然生态系统和人类福祉构成重大威胁，但很少有方法可以量化其强度并对其动态进行建模。我们根据冲突曲线开发了冲突强度分类，该模型最初用于跟踪武装冲突的升级和降级。我们的分类分配了六个强度级别，反映了特定冲突中利益相关者的言论和行动，从共存或合作到身体暴力。通过一系列案例研究，我们证明了我们的方法在量化冲突趋势、估计冲突阶段之间的过渡概率以及将冲突强度建模为相关协变量的函数方面的价值。通过采用基于证据的方法来量化利益相关者的行为，所提出的框架可以更好地理解各种社会生态情景中保护冲突发展的驱动因素。