Current climate model resolution cannot accurately describe the complex topography over the Tibetan Plateau, which limits our understanding of past and future precipitation over this region. This study investigates the daily precipitation characteristics and its future changes over the Tibetan Plateau, especially for the southern slope of Tibetan Plateau (SSTP), by 14‐km Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) with explicitly calculated convection for historical and future 30‐years period. By comparing with the satellite Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), NICAM well reproduces the historical precipitation spatial pattern, seasonal cycle, and the extreme precipitation belt over SSTP, but overestimates precipitation amount by ∼35%. It is found that heavy precipitation probability decreases as elevation becomes higher while the light precipitation generally shows the opposite. For the precipitation changes during June to September from 1979–2008 to 2075–2104, NICAM predicts that mean precipitation will decrease over low‐level SSTP but increase over high‐level SSTP. Nonprecipitation and heavy precipitation probability will increase while light precipitation probability will decrease in the future over SSTP. The extreme precipitation probability and intensity will increase ∼50%/°C and ∼8%/°C over SSTP, and this increase is more obvious as elevation becomes higher. The robust increase of extreme precipitation along the SSTP topography is unique and has not been identified by the climate model simulations before. The strong meridional gradient of specific humidity over SSTP is found to be further enhanced under global warming, and this gradient enhancement is suggested to be responsible for the increase in the extreme precipitation over SSTP.

中文翻译：

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高分辨率全球非静水模式模拟的青藏高原南坡降水特征及未来变化

当前的气候模型分辨率无法准确描述青藏高原的复杂地形，这限制了我们对该地区过去和未来降水的了解。本研究通过14 km非静力二十面体大气模型（NICAM）调查了青藏高原特别是青藏高原南坡（SSTP）的日降水特征及其未来变化，并明确计算了历史和未来30年的对流期。通过与卫星全球降水量测量（GPM）进行比较，NICAM很好地再现了SSTP上的历史降水空间格局，季节周期和极端降水带，但将降水量高估了约35％。发现随着高度的升高，重度降水的概率降低，而轻度降水通常呈现相反的趋势。对于1979–2008年至2075–2104年6月至9月的降水变化，NICAM预测平均降水量将在低水平SSTP上减少，但在高水平SSTP上增加。在SSTP上，未来非降水和强降水的概率会增加，而轻降水的概率会降低。与SSTP相比，极端降水的概率和强度将增加〜50％/°C和〜8％/°C，并且随着海拔升高，这种增加更加明显。沿SSTP地形的极端降水的强劲增加是独特的，以前的气候模型模拟还没有发现。