Late Holocene flood magnitudes in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta resolved by a two‐dimensional hydraulic modelling approach,Earth Surface Processes and Landforms

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Late Holocene flood magnitudes in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta resolved by a two‐dimensional hydraulic modelling approach
Earth Surface Processes and Landforms ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-11 , DOI: 10.1002/esp.5071
Bas Meulen ₁ , Anouk Bomers ₂ , Kim M. Cohen ₁ , Hans Middelkoop ₁

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Palaeoflood hydraulic modelling is essential for quantifying ‘millennial flood’ events not covered in the instrumental record. Palaeoflood modelling research has largely focused on one‐dimensional analysis for geomorphologically stable fluvial settings because two‐dimensional analysis for dynamic alluvial settings is time consuming and requires a detailed representation of the past landscape. In this study, we make the step to spatially continuous palaeoflood modelling for a large and dynamic lowland area. We applied advanced hydraulic model simulations (1D–2D coupled set‐up in HEC‐RAS with 950 channel sections and 108 × 10³ floodplain grid cells) to quantify the extent and magnitude of past floods in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta. As input, we used a high‐resolution terrain reconstruction (palaeo‐DEM) of the area in early mediaeval times, complemented with hydraulic roughness values. After conducting a series of model runs with increasing discharge magnitudes at the upstream boundary, we compared the simulated flood water levels with an inventory of exceeded and non‐exceeded elevations extracted from various geological, archaeological and historical sources. This comparison demonstrated a Lower Rhine millennial flood magnitude of approximately 14,000 m³/s for the Late Holocene period before late mediaeval times. This value exceeds the largest measured discharges in the instrumental record, but not the design discharges currently accounted for in flood risk management.

中文翻译：

二维水力建模方法解决了下莱茵河谷和上三角洲的全新世晚期洪水幅度

Palaooflood水力模型对于量化仪器记录中未涵盖的“千年洪水”事件至关重要。Palaooflood建模研究主要集中于对地貌稳定的河流环境进行一维分析，因为对动态冲积环境进行二维分析非常耗时，并且需要详细描述过去的景观。在这项研究中，我们迈出了对大型动态低地地区进行空间连续古洪水建模的步骤。我们应用了先进的水力模型模拟（在HEC-RAS中具有950个通道截面和108×10 ^3的1D–2D耦合设置洪泛区网格单元）以量化莱茵河下游河谷和上游三角洲过去洪水的程度和程度。作为输入，我们在中世纪早期使用了该地区的高分辨率地形重建（palaeo-DEM），并附加了水力粗糙度值。在进行了一系列在上游边界排放量增加的模型运行之后，我们将模拟洪水水位与从各种地质，考古和历史来源中提取的超高和超高标高清单进行了比较。比较结果表明，莱茵河下游的千年洪水强度约为14,000 m ³/ s在中世纪晚期之前的全新世晚期。该值超过了仪器记录中最大的实测排放量，但不超过当前在洪水风险管理中考虑的设计排放量。

更新日期：2021-01-11

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