Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most widely used measure of economic performance world-wide. Where long-run economic sustainability and human well-being are concerned, GDP can provide misleading policy advice. While the limitations of GDP are discussed conceptually in the literature, we provide a quantitative example demonstrating the implications of using only GDP to inform policy design. In the context of Colombia's post-conflict development, we show that continuing the recent trend of increasing deforestation reflects positively on GDP by about US$59 million by 2035. However, when we consider the natural capital assets and environmental quality that underpin economic growth summarized by the Genuine Savings indicator of wealth, reducing deforestation and enhancing agricultural productivity results in a more prosperous and sustainable post-conflict future for Colombia with a US$48 billion increase in wealth. Policy makers relying only on GDP as a guide to policy effectiveness risk undermining their country's development prospects and inter-generational well-being which is at the very core of sustainable development. While natural capital accounting sheds light on past economy-environment interactions, future looking integrated analytical frameworks such as that presented in this paper are required to evaluate policies on the basis of their potential impacts on sustainable economic development and wealth.

国内生产总值（GDP）是全世界使用最广泛的经济绩效指标。对于长期的经济可持续发展和人类福祉，GDP可能会提供误导性的政策建议。尽管在文献中从概念上讨论了GDP的局限性，但我们提供了一个定量的例子，说明了仅使用GDP来指导政策设计的含义。在哥伦比亚冲突后发展的背景下，我们表明，持续增加森林砍伐的最新趋势到2035年将对GDP产生约5900万美元的积极影响。但是，当我们考虑支撑经济增长的自然资本资产和环境质量时，财富的真实储蓄指标，减少森林砍伐和提高农业生产力将为哥伦比亚带来一个更加繁荣和可持续的冲突后未来，财富增加480亿美元。决策者仅依靠国内生产总值作为政策效力的指南，这将损害其国家的发展前景和代际福祉，而这是可持续发展的核心。尽管自然资本核算揭示了过去的经济与环境之间的相互作用，但仍需要本文件中介绍的具有前瞻性的综合分析框架，以便根据政策对可持续经济发展和财富的潜在影响来评估政策。决策者仅依靠国内生产总值作为政策效力的指南，这将损害其国家的发展前景和代际福祉，而这是可持续发展的核心。尽管自然资本核算揭示了过去的经济与环境之间的相互作用，但仍需要本文件中介绍的具有前瞻性的综合分析框架，以便根据政策对可持续经济发展和财富的潜在影响来评估政策。决策者仅依靠国内生产总值作为政策效力的指南，这将损害其国家的发展前景和代际福祉，而这是可持续发展的核心。尽管自然资本核算揭示了过去的经济与环境之间的相互作用，但仍需要本文件中介绍的具有前瞻性的综合分析框架，以便根据政策对可持续经济发展和财富的潜在影响来评估政策。