This paper sheds new light on the degree of international fiscal-financial spillovers by investigating the effect of domestic fiscal policies on cross-border bank lending. By estimating the dynamic response of U.S. cross-border bank lending towards 45 recipient countries to exogenous domestic fiscal shocks (both measured by spending and revenue) between 1990Q1 and 2012Q4, we find that expansionary domestic fiscal shocks lead to a statistically significant increase in cross-border bank lending and the size of the effect is comparable to an exogenous decline in the federal funds rate by about 25 bp (50 bp) for spending (revenue) shocks. The fiscal-financial spillovers we find are independent of changes in monetary policy or financial conditions measured by the VIX. The effects also depend on the sign of the fiscal shocks and the underlying economic conditions of a source country. While capital controls seem to play some moderating role, we do not find systematic and statistically significant differences in the spillover effects across recipient countries, depending on their exchange rate regime. The extension of the analysis to fiscal shocks for a panel of 16 small open economies largely confirms the U.S. economy’s findings.

通过调查国内财政政策对跨境银行贷款的影响，本文为国际财政金融溢出的程度提供了新的思路。通过估算1990年第一季度至2012年第四季度之间，美国向45个接受国提供的跨境银行贷款对外部国内财政冲击（均由支出和收入衡量）的动态响应，我们发现，扩张性的国内财政冲击导致跨境贸易在统计上显着增加边境银行的贷款及其影响的规模可与联邦基金利率因支出（收入）冲击而外生下降约25个基点（50个基点）相媲美。我们发现，财政-金融外溢与VIX衡量的货币政策或财务状况的变化无关。影响还取决于财政冲击的迹象和来源国的潜在经济状况。尽管资本管制似乎起了一定的调节作用，但我们并未发现受援国之间的汇率溢出效应在系统性和统计上的显着差异。对一个由16个小型开放经济体组成的小组进行的分析将其扩展至财政冲击，在很大程度上证实了美国经济的发现。