This study examines the response of hydrological processes to different climate change scenarios in the Jemma sub-basin of the Blue Nile Basin. Future near-term (2021–2050) and long-term (2071–2100) climate scenarios were developed from six statistically bias corrected Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The outputs of climate models were used as input to a calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the sub-basin. For a robust hydrologic representation, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated at three River gauging stations and provided an acceptable result. The climate scenarios developed from bias corrected RCMs projected an increase in temperature in all models and a decrease in rainfall in the ensemble mean of the models in the near-term and long-term climate scenarios. Climate change may cause a consistent decrease in surface runoff and total water yield and an increase in evapotranspiration under all climate scenarios. This study recommends water management structures which can conserve water for agriculture and other ecosystem services in the Jemma sub-basin and in other similar areas in Ethiopia.

中文翻译：

---

气候变化情景下埃塞俄比亚青尼罗河上游流域 Jemma 次流域的水文过程模拟


本研究探讨了青尼罗河流域杰玛次流域水文过程对不同气候变化情景的响应。未来近期（2021-2050）和长期（2071-2100）气候情景是根据两个代表性浓度路径（RCP）情景下的六个统计偏差校正的区域气候模型（RCM）开发的：RCP4.5和RCP8.5 。气候模型的输出被用作校准和验证的土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）模型的输入，以评估气候变化对次流域水文的影响。为了获得可靠的水文表征，SWAT 模型在三个河流测量站进行了校准和验证，并提供了可接受的结果。根据偏差校正 RCM 开发的气候情景预测，在近期和长期气候情景中，所有模型中的温度都会上升，而模型的集合平均值中的降雨量会减少。在所有气候情景下，气候变化可能导致地表径流和总产水量持续减少，以及蒸散量增加。本研究建议建立水管理结构，为杰马次流域和埃塞俄比亚其他类似地区的农业和其他生态系统服务节约用水。