Mexico's current climate change policy sets the country on a development pathway which is inconsistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement. The Deep Decarbonization methodology has been used to develop an alternative whole-economy pathway to 2050 consistent with limiting warming to between 1.5 and 2°C above pre-industrial times, covering energy and non-energy sectors and achieving comparable population and GDP growth to those expected from current policies. In this pathway, renewable electricity substitutes fossil fuels as the main energy source before 2040, urban regulation and infrastructure favor public transport while electric vehicles are rapidly rolled out to both public and private fleets, and improved agricultural and forest management practices reduce emissions and increase absorptions. Rapid uptake of renewable electricity and electric vehicles will require decisive policy action, and the resulting reductions in oil and gas demand will require changes to fiscal policy and industrial strategy. This work is part of the “Deep Decarbonization Pathways for Latin America” project.

墨西哥现行的气候变化政策使该国走上了一条与《巴黎协定》的目标不符的发展道路。深度脱碳方法已被用于发展到2050年的替代性全经济途径，这与将升温限制在比工业化前时期高1.5到2°C之间是可行的，涵盖了能源和非能源行业，并实现了与那些行业相当的人口和GDP增长当前政策预期的结果。在这一途径中，可再生能源电力将替代化石燃料成为2040年之前的主要能源，城市监管和基础设施有利于公共交通，而电动汽车则迅速推向公共和私人车队，并且改进的农业和森林管理实践减少了排放并增加了吸收。快速吸收可再生电力和电动汽车将需要采取果断的政策行动，由此导致的石油和天然气需求的减少将需要改变财政政策和产业战略。这项工作是“拉丁美洲的深度脱碳途径”项目的一部分。