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Assessing the role of quarantine and isolation as control strategies for COVID-19 outbreak: A case study
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals ( IF 7.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-09 , DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110655
Zaibunnisa Memon 1, 2 , Sania Qureshi 1 , Bisharat Rasool Memon 3
Affiliation  

Life style of people almost in every country has been changed with arrival of corona virus. Under the drastic influence of the virus, mathematicians, statisticians, epidemiologists, microbiologists, environmentalists, health providers, and government officials started searching for strategies including mathematical modeling, lock-down, face masks, isolation, quarantine, and social distancing. With quarantine and isolation being the most effective tools, we have formulated a new nonlinear deterministic model based upon ordinary differential equations containing six compartments (susceptible S(t), exposed E(t), quarantined Q(t), infected I(t), isolated J(t) and recovered R(t)). The model is found to have positively invariant region whereas equilibrium points of the model are investigated for their local stability with respect to the basic reproductive number R0. The computed value of R0=1.31 proves endemic level of the epidemic. Using nonlinear least-squares method and real prevalence of COVID-19 cases in Pakistan, best parameters are obtained and their sensitivity is analyzed. Various simulations are presented to appreciate quarantined and isolated strategies if applied sensibly.



中文翻译:

评估检疫和隔离作为 COVID-19 爆发控制策略的作用:案例研究

随着冠状病毒的到来,几乎每个国家的人们的生活方式都发生了变化。在病毒的剧烈影响下,数学家、统计学家、流行病学家、微生物学家、环保主义者、卫生提供者和政府官员开始寻找包括数学建模、封锁、口罩、隔离、检疫和社会疏远在内的策略。检疫和隔离是最有效的工具,我们制定了一个新的非线性确定性模型,该模型基于包含六个隔间的常微分方程(易感小号(),裸露(),隔离(),已感染(),隔离的()并恢复R()). 发现该模型具有正不变区域,同时研究了模型的平衡点相对于基本再生数的局部稳定性R0. 的计算值R0=1.31证明流行病的流行程度。使用非线性最小二乘法和巴基斯坦 COVID-19 病例的实际流行情况,获得了最佳参数并分析了它们的敏感性。提出了各种模拟,以了解隔离和孤立的策略(如果应用得当)。

更新日期:2021-01-12
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