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Multi-Level Decision-Making for Inter-Regional Water Resources Management with Water Footprint Analysis and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Water Resources Management ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-09 , DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02727-w
Yizhong Chen , Hongwei Lu , Jing Li , Pengdong Yan , He Peng

This study develops a synergistic optimization framework for planning inter-regional water resources management system under shared socioeconomic pathways; this framework integrates multi-level and robust flexible programs. The upper-level model determines minimum social loss induced by water exploitation, the middle-level one focuses exclusively on pollutant emissions, and the lower-level one aims to achieve maximum economic benefits. An improved multi-level interactive algorithm is proposed to balance the satisfaction degree of constraints and goals to achieve optimal. The effectiveness of the developed multi-level model is illustrated through a real-world case in Wuhan City Circle. Results indicate that the overall water resources performance in Wuhan City Circle is satisfactory, especially in Xianning and Huanggang, whereas some water footprint deficits exist in Wuhan, Xiaogan, and Tianmen. Climate scenarios have a remarkable effect on social loss but only slightly affect water supply strategies, pollutant emissions, and economic benefits. A high satisfactory degree results in a low risk of insufficient water supply and excessive pollutant emissions. Thus, satisfactory degree can be used as an evaluation indicator for identifying the amount of credible and reliable risk on final decisions. The findings of this study can enable stakeholders to grasp the inherent conflicts and trade-offs between environmental and economic interests.



中文翻译:

基于水足迹分析和共享社会经济路径的区域间水资源管理的多层次决策

这项研究开发了一个协同优化框架,用于在共享的社会经济途径下规划区域间水资源管理系统;该框架集成了多级且强大的灵活程序。上层模型确定了由水开发引起的最小社会损失,中层模型专门关注污染物的排放,下层模型旨在实现最大的经济效益。提出了一种改进的多层次交互式算法,以平衡约束和目标的满足程度,以达到最优。武汉城市圈的一个实际案例说明了开发的多层次模型的有效性。结果表明,武汉城市圈的总体水资源表现令人满意,特别是咸宁和皇岗。而武汉,孝感和天门则存在一些水足迹短缺的问题。气候情景对社会损失有显着影响,但对供水策略,污染物排放和经济效益的影响仅很小。较高的满意程度导致供水不足和污染物排放过多的风险较低。因此,令人满意的程度可以用作评估指标,以识别最终决策中可信和可靠的风险。这项研究的结果可以使利益相关者掌握环境与经济利益之间的内在矛盾和权衡。较高的满意程度导致供水不足和污染物排放过多的风险较低。因此,令人满意的程度可以用作评估指标,以识别最终决策中可信和可靠的风险。这项研究的结果可以使利益相关者掌握环境与经济利益之间的内在矛盾和权衡。较高的满意程度导致供水不足和污染物排放过多的风险较低。因此,令人满意的程度可以用作评估指标,以识别最终决策中可信和可靠的风险。这项研究的结果可以使利益相关者掌握环境与经济利益之间的内在矛盾和权衡。

更新日期:2021-01-10
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