We examined the association between habitat variables and the relative impacts of topographic microclimates as a valuable tool for restoration and conservation of Abies pinsapo in southern Spain. We used presence–absence data from A. pinsapo and 79 environmental variables and biomod species distribution models to describe the current and future species habitat across the Sierra de las Nieves Natural Park (southern Spain). A. pinsapo habitat was most strongly associated with microtopographic (solar incidence) and temperature variables, indicating climate-driven changes in microhabitat use. Most of the temperature variation among the study site was attributable to topographic microclimates rather than regional temperature differences, such that differences in microhabitat associations occurred principally between north- and south-facing slopes within the same region. The current potential distribution suggests that around 8.7% (56.44 km²) of the study area is highly suitable for A. pinsapo, with 9.7% (62.84 km²) being moderately suitable. Under different global circulation models and climate change scenarios, the net decrease in suitable habitat is predicted to be 93% of the current distribution by 2040, disappearing altogether by 2099. Our findings also show a sharp reduction of potential restoration areas (1.8% of the current areas). Microclimatic variation generated by the topography offers the microclimate-driven locations of habitat suitability which could shape species’ distribution restoration actions and their responses to environmental change. The approach presented here can provide a rapid assessment of the future conservation status of other important forest tree species in Spain, improving our understanding of the vulnerability of endangered species under climate change, and can be an effective tool for biodiversity conservation, restoration, and management.

我们研究了栖息地变量与地形微气候的相对影响之间的联系，将其作为西班牙南部Abies pinapo的恢复和保护的宝贵工具。我们使用了A. pinapo的有无数据以及79个环境变量和生物模种分布模型来描述整个塞拉利昂德尼维斯自然公园（西班牙南部）的当前和未来物种栖息地。Pinapo栖息地与微地形（太阳入射）和温度变量之间的相关性最强，表明气候驱动的微栖息地使用方式发生了变化。研究地点之间的大多数温度变化都归因于地形微气候而不是区域温度差异，因此，微栖息地关联的差异主要发生在同一地区的北坡和南坡之间。当前的电势分布表明，研究区的大约8.7％（56.44 km ²）非常适合A. pinapo ，而研究区的百分比为9.7％（62.84 km ^2））适中。在不同的全球环流模型和气候变化情景下，到2040年，适宜栖息地的净减少量预计将占当前分布的净减少量的93％，到2099年将完全消失。我们的研究结果还表明，潜在的恢复面积急剧减少（占总恢复面积的1.8％）。当前区域）。地形所产生的微气候变化提供了微气候驱动的栖息地适宜性位置，这些位置可能会影响物种的分布恢复作用及其对环境变化的响应。此处介绍的方法可以快速评估西班牙其他重要林木物种的未来保护状况，增进我们对气候变化下濒危物种的脆弱性的理解，并且可以成为保护，恢复，