Invasive bivalves can cause widespread ecological damage, but eradication has proved difficult. Identifying the pathways of dispersal is crucial to implementing more effective biocontainment measures. We examined the distribution of the highly invasive zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) in Great Britain through Species Distribution Modelling to determine the drivers of distribution and generated suitability maps to predict future dispersal. Distance to boat ramps was the most important predictor of zebra mussel establishment, accounting for 27% of variation in occurrence. Probability of occurrence was highest within 3 km upstream of boat ramps, probably due to boating activity and the impounded waters typically associated with boat ramps. Our results highlight the need for implementing stringent control measures around boat ramps, and demonstrate the value of spatially modelling species distribution to create risk maps for targeting monitoring efforts at those locations most vulnerable to invasion.

侵入性的双壳类动物可引起广泛的生态破坏，但根除已证明是困难的。确定传播途径对于实施更有效的生物遏制措施至关重要。我们检查了高度侵入性斑马贻贝（Dreissena polymorpha）在英国通过“物种分布建模”来确定分布的驱动因素，并生成适用性图以预测未来的扩散。到舷梯的距离是斑马贻贝形成最重要的预测指标，占发生变化的27％。在船舷梯上游3 km内发生的可能性最高，这可能是由于划船活动和通常与船舷梯相关的蓄水。我们的结果强调了在船舷梯周围实施严格控制措施的必要性，并证明了对物种分布进行空间建模的价值，以创建风险图，以针对那些最容易受到入侵的地点进行监测。