Research on fertility changes in former Soviet states of the South Caucasus is scant and has overlooked the role of armed conflicts. This study contributes to filling these gaps by providing the first detailed account of fertility changes in Azerbaijan since independence and by exploring them in relation to the Nagorno‐Karabakh conflict with Armenia. Estimates from retrospective birth history data from the 2006 Demographic and Health Survey show that since 1991 period fertility declined to almost below‐replacement levels, essentially as a result of stopping behavior, and, only recently, slight birth postponement. While the conflict seems to have little influence on aggregate trends, discrete‐time logit models accounting for unobserved heterogeneity reveal a 42–45 percent higher risk of transitioning to the second birth for women who have been exposed to conflict violence—whether in the form of forced migration or because of residence in the conflict‐torn Karabakh region—than for nonexposed women. Never‐migrant women from Karabakh have also significantly higher probability of having a first child. Further positive effects on fertility are observed for women who lost a child during peak conflict years. Risk‐insurance and replacement effects are possible mechanisms explaining such fertility responses.

中文翻译：

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武装冲突与阿塞拜疆的分娩时机

前南高加索州苏联生育率变化的研究很少，并且忽视了武装冲突的作用。这项研究通过提供自独立以来阿塞拜疆的生育率变化的第一个详细说明，并就纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫与亚美尼亚的冲突进行了探讨，为填补这些差距做出了贡献。根据2006年《人口与健康调查》的回顾性出生史数据估计，自1991年以来，生育率下降到几乎低于置换水平，这主要是由于行为停止所致，直到最近才略有推迟生育。尽管冲突似乎对总体趋势影响不大，考虑到未观察到的异质性的离散时间logit模型显示，暴露于冲突暴力的妇女（无论是强迫迁移还是因在饱受冲突折磨的卡拉巴赫市居住）过渡到第二胎的风险增加了42-45％。地区-比未接触女性的地区要高。来自卡拉巴赫的从不移民的妇女生第一个孩子的可能性也大大提高。在冲突高峰期失去孩子的妇女，观察到对生育能力的进一步积极影响。风险保险和替代效应是解释这种生育反应的可能机制。来自卡拉巴赫的从不移民的妇女生第一个孩子的可能性也大大提高。在冲突高峰期失去孩子的妇女，观察到对生育能力的进一步积极影响。风险保险和替代效应是解释这种生育反应的可能机制。来自卡拉巴赫的从不移民的妇女生第一个孩子的可能性也大大提高。在冲突高峰期失去孩子的妇女，观察到对生育能力的进一步积极影响。风险保险和替代效应是解释这种生育反应的可能机制。