We estimate the ex‐post agricultural trade impacts of retaliatory measures imposed by foreign countries in response to United States' Section 232 and 301 tariffs using a theoretically consistent, monthly, product line gravity equation. Retaliation led to significant US agricultural export losses of $13.5 to $18.7 billion on an annualized basis. Considerable heterogeneity exists in the average treatment effect of retaliation. First, retaliatory trade actions presented a strong within‐year seasonal impact. Nearly 70% of aggregate trade losses occurred during the US's peak export marketing season. Second, U.S. trade losses were particularly pronounced on homogeneous bulk commodities, whereas product differentiation dampened the impact of retaliation. Third, with few exceptions, the counterfactually estimated direct trade losses line up well with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) trade damage estimates for trade aid programs distributed to farmers impacted by the trade dispute. Finally, we find little evidence that U.S. exports were able to be reoriented to alternative, nonretaliating markets—an indication of high bilateral trade frictions and the destructive consequences of retaliatory trade actions.

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农产品出口和报复性贸易行动：对2018/2019年贸易冲突的实证评估

我们使用理论上一致的月度产品线重力方程，估算了外国针对美国232和301关税而采取的报复措施对农业贸易的影响。报复行动导致美国农业出口额按年化计算大幅亏损了13.5到187亿美元。报复的平均治疗效果中存在相当大的异质性。首先，报复性贸易行为对年度内的季节产生了强烈的影响。在美国的出口营销旺季中，近70％的总贸易损失发生在美国。其次，美国在同质散装商品上的贸易损失尤为明显，而产品差异化打击了报复的影响。第三，除了少数例外，经反事实估算的直接贸易损失与美国农业部（USDA）分配给受贸易争端影响的农民的贸易援助计划的贸易损失估算非常吻合。最后，我们几乎没有证据表明美国的出口能够转向非报复性替代市场，这表明双边贸易摩擦很大，并采取报复性贸易行动造成破坏性后果。