As one of the national critical infrastructures, the water distribution system supports our daily life and economic growth, the failure of which may lead to catastrophic results. Besides the uncertainty from the system component failures, cyberattacks are vital to the secure system operation and have great impacts on the reliability of the water supply service. Malicious attackers may intrude into the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system of pump stations in the water distribution networks and interrupt the water supply to the customers. Cyber insurance is emerging as a promising financial tool in system risk management. In this paper, cyber insurance is proposed for the cyber risk management of the water distribution system. A semi-Markov process (SMP) model is devised to model the cyberattacks against pump stations in the water distribution system. Both the impacts of the independent cyber risks in the individual distribution network and the correlated cyber risks shared across different water distribution networks are evaluated and modeled. A sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) based algorithm is developed to evaluate the system loss. Cyber insurance premiums for the water distribution networks are designed based on the actuarial principles and potential system losses. Case studies are also performed on multiple representative water distribution networks, and the results demonstrate the validity of the proposed cyber insurance model.

中文翻译：

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考虑恶意网络攻击的供水系统网络保险方案


供水系统作为国家关键基础设施之一，支撑着我们的日常生活和经济发展，一旦出现故障可能会导致灾难性的后果。除了系统组件故障带来的不确定性之外，网络攻击对于系统的安全运行至关重要，并对供水服务的可靠性产生重大影响。恶意攻击者可能会侵入配水网络中泵站的监控和数据采集（SCADA）系统并中断对客户的供水。网络保险正在成为系统风险管理中一种有前途的金融工具。本文提出了网络保险用于供水系统的网络风险管理。设计了半马尔可夫过程（SMP）模型来模拟针对配水系统中泵站的网络攻击。对单个配水网络中独立网络风险的影响以及不同配水网络之间共享的相关网络风险进行了评估和建模。开发了基于顺序蒙特卡罗模拟 (MCS) 的算法来评估系统损耗。配水网络的网络保险费是根据精算原理和潜在的系统损失设计的。还对多个代表性的供水网络进行了案例研究，结果证明了所提出的网络保险模型的有效性。