Estimating future sea level rise (SLR) and sea surface temperature (SST) is essential to implement mitigation and adaptation options within a sustainable development framework. This study estimates regional SLR and SST changes around the Korean peninsula. Two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios and nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations are used to estimate the changes in SLR and SST. At the end of the 21st century, global SLR is expected to be 0.28 m (0.17–0.38 m) and 0.65 m (0.52–0.78 m) for SSP 1–2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Regional change around the Korean peninsula (0.25 m (0.15–0.35 m; SSP1-2.6) and 0.63 m (0.50–0.76 m; SSP5-8.5)) is similar with global SLR. The discrepancy between global and regional changes is distinct in SST warming rather than SLR. For SSP5-8.5, SST around the Korean peninsula projects is to rise from 0.49 °C to 0.59 °C per decade, which is larger than the global SST trend (0.39 °C per decade). Considering this, the difference of regional SST change is related to the local ocean current change, such as the Kuroshio Current. Additionally, ocean thermal expansion and glacier melting are major contributors to SLR, and the contribution rates of glacier melting increase in higher emission scenarios.

中文翻译：

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基于CMIP6模型的全球和区域海平面上升和海面温度的未来变化

估计未来的海平面上升（SLR）和海面温度（SST）对于在可持续发展框架内实施缓解和适应方案至关重要。这项研究估计了朝鲜半岛周围的区域SLR和SST变化。使用两个共享的社会经济途径（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5）方案和九个耦合模型比较项目第六阶段（CMIP6）模型仿真来估计SLR和SST的变化。在21世纪末，SSP 1–2.6和SSP5-8.5的全球SLR预计分别为0.28 m（0.17–0.38 m）和0.65 m（0.52–0.78 m）。朝鲜半岛周围的区域变化（0.25 m（0.15-0.35 m； SSP1-2.6）和0.63 m（0.50-0.76 m； SSP5-8.5））与全球SLR相似。全球和区域变化之间的差异在SST变暖而不是SLR中是明显的。对于SSP5-8.5，朝鲜半岛项目周围的SST将从每十年的0.49°C上升到0.59°C，这大于全球SST趋势（每十年0.39°C）。考虑到这一点，区域海表温度变化的差异与当地的洋流变化（如黑潮）有关。此外，海洋热膨胀和冰川融化是造成SLR的主要因素，在更高排放的情况下，冰川融化的贡献率也会增加。