1. Seed banks are known to play a key role in plant metapopulations. However, detecting seed banks remains challenging and requires intense monitoring efforts. Assessing the genuine effect of seed banks on plant metapopulation dynamics (rather than their presence) may offer a much easier while still biologically relevant way to overcome this issue.
2. In this study, we developed a new metric: the seed bank characteristic event (SBCE) probability. Instead of detecting seed bank directly, the SBCE probability measures seed bank contribution to the observed metapopulation dynamics. Exploring seed bank parameters (colonization, germination and seed bank death probabilities, initial proportion of patches containing a seed bank), a wide range of monitoring durations (from 3 to 10 years) and number of patches in the metapopulation (from 10 to 1,000 patches), we examined the conditions under which the SBCE probability is correctly estimated. To test the robustness of our approach, we further introduced false negatives, false positives or parameter heterogeneity between patches. Finally, we applied the SBCE probability method to the monitoring of tree bases plant species in Paris, France, to assess the applicability of the method to real‐world datasets and increase the understanding of plant metapopulation dynamics within an urban environment.
3. Our results indicate that the SBCE probability is well‐estimated when enough monitoring years or number of patches are considered, and for probabilities of false negatives or false positives of up to 0.1. However, the SBCE probability estimation is not robust to colonization probability heterogeneity between patches. When we applied the SBCE probability method to the real monitoring dataset, we found a contrasted contribution of the seed bank to the observed metapopulation dynamics from one street and one species to another.
4. The study suggests that the measurement of seed bank contribution is less data‐demanding than assessment of seed bank presence. Applying the estimation method to the monitoring of tree bases plant species highlights a significant contribution of the seed bank to plant metapopulation dynamics in an urban environment, and illustrates how the method can be applied on real‐world datasets.

中文翻译：

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检测种子库对植物种群动态的影响

1. 种子库在植物种群中起关键作用。但是，检测种子库仍然具有挑战性，需要大力监测。评估种子库对植物种群动态（而不是它们的存在）的真正影响可能会提供一种更容易同时仍具有生物学相关性的方法来克服该问题。
2. 在这项研究中，我们开发了一种新的指标：种子库特征事件（SBCE）概率。SBCE概率不是直接检测种子库，而是测量种子库对观察到的种群动态的贡献。探索种子库参数（定植，发芽和种子库死亡概率，包含种子库的贴片的初始比例），广泛的监测持续时间（3至10年）和迁移种群中的贴片数量（10到1,000个贴片） ），我们研究了可以正确估算SBCE概率的条件。为了测试我们方法的鲁棒性，我们进一步在补丁之间引入了假阴性，假阳性或参数异质性。最后，我们将SBCE概率方法应用于法国巴黎的林木植物物种的监测，
3. 我们的结果表明，当考虑足够的监视年限或补丁数量时，对于误判阴性或误判高达0.1的概率，可以很好地估计SBCE概率。但是，SBCE概率估计对补丁之间定植概率异质性不强。当我们将SBCE概率方法应用于实际监测数据集时，我们发现了种子库对观察到的从一种街道和一种物种到另一种物种的种群动态的对比贡献。
4. 该研究表明，对种子库贡献的衡量方法比对种子库存在评估的数据需求更少。将估计方法应用于树基植物物种的监测，突显了种子库对城市环境中植物种群动态的重要贡献，并说明了该方法如何应用于现实世界的数据集。