Establishing predevelopment benchmark groundwater conditions is challenging without long-term records to discern impacts of pumping and climate change on aquifer levels. Understanding periodic natural cycles and trends require 100 years or more data which rarely exist. Using limited records, we develop an approach to hindcast multidecadal levels and examine the temporal evolution of climatic and pumping impacts. The methodology includes a wavelet-aided statistical model, constrained by temporal scales of physical processes responsible for groundwater level variation, including rainfall, evapotranspiration and pumping stresses. The model and hindcasts are tested at three sites in Florida using traditional split calibration-verification methods for the period of record and with the documented historical drought and wet years for the period of no-record. The pumping impact is quantified over time and compared with regional groundwater models, revealing that withdrawals are responsible for 30 to 70% of the declines in levels since 1960s. Hindcasting yielding 110 years of monthly levels is used to assess the effect of climate change and pumping on the frequency of critical low levels. At all three sites, the frequencies of critical low levels increase significantly in the 1960 to 2015 period when compared to the 1904 to 1959 period. For example, at site 1, the return period of the critical low level is shortened by 3.9 years due to climate change and 2.2 years due to pumping.

中文翻译：

---

佛罗里达含水层中多年开发前地下水位的后报

如果没有长期记录来辨别抽水和气候变化对含水层水平的影响，则建立开发前基准地下水条件是一项挑战。了解周期性的自然循环和趋势需要 100 年或更长时间的数据，而这些数据很少存在。使用有限的记录，我们开发了一种后报年代际水平的方法，并检查气候和抽水影响的时间演变。该方法包括一个小波辅助统计模型，受负责地下水位变化的物理过程的时间尺度约束，包括降雨、蒸散和抽水应力。该模型和后报在佛罗里达州的三个地点进行了测试，在记录期间使用传统的拆分校准验证方法，在无记录期间使用记录的历史干旱和潮湿年份。抽水影响随着时间的推移被量化，并与区域地下水模型进行比较，表明自 1960 年代以来的水位下降的 30% 至 70% 是由取水造成的。产生 110 年每月水平的后报用于评估气候变化和抽水对临界低水平频率的影响。在所有三个站点中，与 1904 年至 1959 年期间相比，1960 年至 2015 年期间临界低水平的频率显着增加。例如，在站点 1，由于气候变化和站点 2，临界低水位的重现期缩短了 3.9 年。