Abstract Even before the onset of the Covid‐19 pandemic, the U.S. population growth rate last year was the lowest in 100 years. And, from 2010 to 2019 nonmetropolitan America lost population for the first time in history. Diminished natural increase was a major contributor to this and also accelerated the incidence of natural decrease (more deaths than births), particularly in rural America. Deaths exceeded births in 46 percent of all U.S. counties—a near record high. Nearly 79 percent of these natural decrease counties were nonmetropolitan. This research uses recent data and a multivariate spatial regression model to update our understanding of the growing incidence of natural decrease in both rural and urban America. In light of the mortality increase and likely fertility declines stemming from the Covid‐19 pandemic, these findings have significant implications for future nonmetropolitan demographic trends.

中文翻译：

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随着出生人数减少和死亡人数增加，自然减少在美国农村变得更加普遍*

摘要 即使在 Covid-19 大流行开始之前，美国去年的人口增长率也是 100 年来最低的。而且，从 2010 年到 2019 年，美国非大城市人口有史以来第一次减少。自然增长减少是造成这种情况的主要因素，同时也加速了自然减少的发生率（死亡人数多于出生人数），尤其是在美国农村地区。在美国所有县中，死亡人数超过出生人数的比例为 46%——接近历史最高水平。这些自然减少的县中有近 79% 是非大城市。这项研究使用最近的数据和多元空间回归模型来更新我们对美国农村和城市自然减少发生率不断增长的理解。鉴于 Covid-19 大流行导致死亡率上升和生育率可能下降，