Sources of conflict exist in Northeast Asian waters, ranging from maritime territorial disputes, such as the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands, to friction over maritime airspace within air defense identification zones (ADIZs), and in the great power competition between the United States and China. Sources of cooperation, such as anti‐piracy coordination, also exist in these waters. These two seas coexist despite their incompatible nature. How to guarantee maritime security in the region had been examined primarily through the concept of deterrence, which relies on a coercion‐led mechanism. A functional balance of military capabilities can play a pivotal role in preventing disputes from escalating into military conflict. Without proper transparent measures, however, states in the region can face a security‐dilemma in the form of an unstoppable arms race. Thus, military armament should be supported by confidence armament for maritime security in Northeast Asia. When hard deterrence is implemented simultaneously with maritime confidence‐building measures (MCBMs) as a soft deterrence, which is a voluntary‐basis mechanism, maritime security is more likely to be guaranteed. Likewise, when both military and confidence‐building measures are made simultaneously, the logic of smart deterrence is more likely to be successfully manifested, contributing to making regional stability more sustainable.

中文翻译：

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海上煤层气作为东北亚的威慑力量：悖论之海及其对策

冲突的根源存在于东北亚水域，从海上领土争端（如尖阁（钓鱼岛）群岛）到防空识别区（ADIZ）内海洋领空的摩擦，以及中美之间的强国竞争。这些水域中也存在合作来源，例如反盗版协调。尽管这两个海洋不相容，但它们并存。主要通过威慑概念研究了如何保障该区域的海上安全，威慑概念依靠强制性机制。军事能力的功能平衡可以在防止争端升级为军事冲突方面发挥关键作用。但是，如果没有适当的透明措施，该地区的国家可能会以无法阻挡的军备竞赛的形式面临安全困境。因此，军事武器应以信任武器为东北亚海上安全提供支持。如果将硬性威慑与作为一种软性威慑的海上建立信任措施（MCBM）同时实施，这是一种自愿基础机制，那么海上安全就更有可能得到保障。同样，当同时采取军事措施和建立信任措施时，聪明威慑的逻辑更有可能成功体现出来，从而有助于使区域稳定更加可持续。海上安全更有可能得到保证。同样，当同时采取军事措施和建立信任措施时，聪明威慑的逻辑更有可能成功体现出来，从而有助于使区域稳定更加可持续。海上安全更有可能得到保证。同样，当同时采取军事措施和建立信任措施时，聪明威慑的逻辑更有可能成功体现出来，从而有助于使区域稳定更加可持续。