In this paper, we use local projections to investigate the impact of consolidation shocks on GDP growth, conditional on the fragility of government finances. Based on a database of fiscal plans in OECD countries, we show that spending shocks are less detrimental than tax-based consolidation. In times of fiscal fragility, our results indicate strongly that governments should consolidate through surprise policy changes rather than announcements of consolidation at a later horizon.

中文翻译：

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财政政策和财政脆弱性：经合组织的经验证据

在本文中，我们使用局部预测来研究合并冲击对GDP增长的影响，条件是政府财政的脆弱性。根据经合组织国家的财政计划数据库，我们显示，与基于税收的合并相比，支出冲击的危害较小。在财政脆弱的时期，我们的结果强烈表明，政府应该通过突如其来的政策变化进行整合，而不是在以后宣布合并。