We suggest that the effects of needs for security and certainty (NSC) on economic beliefs result from potentially competing dispositional (political engagement) and contextual (the country-level political narrative around the welfare state) influences. An analysis of data from the 2016 European Social Survey (N = 40,870) showed that at low levels of political engagement, NSC is associated with left-wing beliefs. However, at high levels of political engagement, the NSC effects are conditional on a country’s welfare state model: NSC is related to right-wing beliefs in Liberal, Continental, and Southern types, but the effects are nonsignificant in the Nordic type and the reverse under the Eastern type. Analysis of 2018 round of the same survey (N = 45,575) corroborated the main findings (except the Southern type for which NSC effects were nonsignificant). This study advances knowledge on the psychological roots of economic beliefs and contributes to the understanding of people’s political choices.

我们建议，对安全性和确定性的需求（NSC）对经济信念的影响是由潜在的竞争性倾向（政治参与）和情境（围绕福利国家的国家级政治叙述）产生的。对2016年欧洲社会调查（N = 40,870）的数据进行的分析表明，在政治参与度较低的情况下，NSC与左翼信仰有关。但是，在较高的政治参与度下，NSC的影响取决于一个国家的福利国家模型：NSC与自由派，大陆派和南方派的右翼信仰有关，但在北欧派和相反派的派别中影响不大在东方型下 2018年同一轮调查的分析（N= 45,575）证实了主要发现（NSC效应不显着的南方型除外）。这项研究提高了关于经济信仰的心理根源的知识，并有助于人们对政治选择的理解。