In the study we test the theory that financial markets can provide relevant information about forthcoming corporate events. More specifically, we examine the ability of trading volume to predict dividend changes in a sample of 880 dividend announcements from Iberian firms for the period 2005–2018. We document evidence of a positive and significant relation between unusually high volume and subsequent dividend changes. The results based on panel data regressions with control variables for firm size, profitability measures, volatility and average turnover using both pooled OLS method and fixed effects method are robust. Our results are of special interest to those investors that exhibit a higher preference for dividends.

在研究中，我们测试了金融市场可以提供有关即将发生的公司事件的相关信息的理论。更具体地说，我们在2005-2018年期间从880家来自伊比利亚公司的股息公告样本中研究了交易量预测股息变化的能力。我们记录了异常高交易量与随后股息变化之间正相关关系的证据。基于合并数据的最小二乘估计法和固定效应方法的面板数据回归分析结果，该结果具有控制变量，包括企业规模，获利能力指标，波动率和平均周转率。对于那些对股息表现出更高偏爱的投资者，我们的结果特别感兴趣。