Senna didymobotrya is a native African flowering shrub. It is suspected that climate change encourages the introduction and spread of invasive alien species. The possible invasion of S. didymobotrya across the continent is expected to increase in the future due to ongoing climate change. Nonetheless, there is still paucity of empirical evidence on the extent to which the changing climate contributes to the surge of the flowering shrub. This study, therefore, investigated the present and potential invasion of S. didymobotrya using the species distribution model under changing climate conditions. The two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and eight bioclimatic variables and one topographic variable were used to simulate the current and future (2050s and 2070s) invasion of S. didymobotrya in Africa. The model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS). The results of the study showed that under the current climatic conditions, 18% of Africa is suitable for the establishment and invasion of S. didymobotrya. The most suitable hotspot for S. didymobotrya invasion is eastern Africa, followed by southern Africa. The predicted model showed that by 2050, 3.3% and 3.12% of the continent would be highly suitable areas for the invasion of the species under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In the 2070s, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the highly suitable area would be 3.13% and 2.7%, respectively. In relation to the current suitability, the cumulative projected areas of the low and moderate suitability class under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 will rise by the years 2050 and 2070. However, under both RCPs, the non-suitable area for S. didymobotrya invasion would gradually decrease. From the findings, it can be concluded that the ecosystem’s vulnerability to S. didymobotrya invasion under future climatic conditions will proliferate significantly. Hence, to prevent the projected harm to biodiversity and ecosystem services, governments need to focus their future biodiversity management and policy directions on the means and strategies of minimizing the invasion and the distribution rate of S. didymobotrya across habitat types.

中文翻译：

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在非洲气候变化的情况下预测番泻叶双胞胎的入侵潜力（弗森）欧文和巴内比

番泻叶didymobotrya是一种原生的非洲开花灌木。人们怀疑气候变化会鼓励外来入侵物种的引入和传播。由于持续不断的气候变化，预计未来非洲大陆上的S. didymobotrya入侵可能会增加。然而，仍然缺乏关于气候变化在多大程度上促进开花灌木丛生长的经验证据。因此，本研究使用物种分布模型在变化的气候条件下调查了双链梭菌的当前和潜在入侵。两种代表性的浓度途径（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）以及八个生物气候变量和一个地形变量被用于模拟非洲现在和未来（2050和2070年代）双歧链球菌的入侵。使用接收器工作特征曲线（AUC）和真实技能统计（TSS）下的面积评估模型性能。研究结果表明，在当前的气候条件下，非洲18％的地区适合于双链梭菌的建立和入侵。最适合S. didymobotrya入侵的热点是东部非洲，其次是南部非洲。预测模型表明，到2050年，分别在RCP4.5和RCP8.5之下，非洲大陆的物种入侵区域将非常合适，分别为3.3％和3.12％。在2070年代，在RCP4.5和RCP8.5下，高度合适的区域分别为3.13％和2.7％。就目前的适用性而言，RCP4.5和RCP8.5下的中低适用性类别的累计预测面积将在2050年和2070年之前增加。但是，在两个RCPs下，双歧链球菌入侵的不适当区域将逐渐减少。从发现中可以得出结论，在未来的气候条件下，生态系统对双歧链球菌入侵的脆弱性将大大增加。因此，为防止预计的对生物多样性和生态系统服务的损害，各国政府需要将其未来的生物多样性管理和政策方向集中在最大程度减少跨生境类型的沙门氏菌入侵和分布率的手段和战略上。