Finding medications or vaccines that may decrease the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) could potentially reduce transmission in the broader population. We developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the potential clinical and economic impact of reducing the infectious period duration. Simulation experiments found that reducing the average infectious period duration could avert a median of 442,852 [treating 25% of symptomatic cases, reducing by 0.5 days, reproductive number (R₀) 3.5, and starting treatment when 15% of the population has been exposed] to 44.4 million SARS-CoV-2 cases (treating 75% of all infected cases, reducing by 3.5 days, R₀ 2.0). With R₀ 2.5, reducing the average infectious period duration by 0.5 days for 25% of symptomatic cases averted 1.4 million cases and 99,398 hospitalizations; increasing to 75% of symptomatic cases averted 2.8 million cases. At $500/person, treating 25% of symptomatic cases saved $209.5 billion (societal perspective). Further reducing the average infectious period duration by 3.5 days averted 7.4 million cases (treating 25% of symptomatic cases). Expanding treatment to 75% of all infected cases, including asymptomatic infections (R₀ 2.5), averted 35.9 million cases and 4 million hospitalizations, saving $48.8 billion (societal perspective and starting treatment after 5% of the population has been exposed). Our study quantifies the potential effects of reducing the SARS-CoV-2 infectious period duration.

寻找可缩短严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 感染期的药物或疫苗可能会减少更广泛人群的传播。我们开发了一个美国计算模型，模拟 SARS-CoV-2 的传播以及减少感染期持续时间的潜在临床和经济影响。模拟实验发现，减少平均感染期持续时间可以避免中位数442,852[治疗25%的有症状病例，减少0.5天，再生数（R ₀ ）3.5，并在15%的人口已暴露时开始治疗]治疗 4440 万 SARS-CoV-2 病例（治疗所有感染病例的 75%，减少 3.5 天，R ₀ 2.0）。当 R ₀ 2.5 时，25% 有症状病例的平均感染期持续时间减少 0.5 天，避免了 140 万例病例和 99,398 例住院治疗；有症状病例的比例增加到 75%，避免了 280 万例病例。按每人 500 美元计算，治疗 25% 的有症状病例可节省 2095 亿美元（社会角度）​​。将平均感染期持续时间进一步缩短 3.5 天，避免了 740 万例病例（治疗了 25% 的有症状病例）。将治疗范围扩大到 75% 的感染病例，包括无症状感染者 (R ₀ 2.5)，避免了 3590 万例病例和 400 万人住院治疗，节省了 488 亿美元（从社会角度来看，并在 5% 的人口暴露后开始治疗）。我们的研究量化了缩短 SARS-CoV-2 感染期持续时间的潜在影响。