Croston and the other related methods, such as Syntetos-Boylan approximation (SBA), are the most popular methods recommended in the literature for intermittent demand forecasting. However, these conventional methods are not considered suitable in inventory obsolescence as they do not update their forecast in the periods of zero demand. Therefore, in order to add to the methods suitable for the inventory obsolescence issue, we propose a new method that imparts flexibility to the SBA method. The proposed method updates forecast each period by the use of distinct smoothing constants for interdemand intervals. The method is further examined extensively on a simulated dataset considering gradual and abrupt obsolescence and an empirical dataset from the automotive sector. The study is not limited to assessing the forecasting accuracy but also focuses upon the inventory performance of the considered methods. The study results indicate the effectiveness of the proposed method, particularly under increased risk of obsolescence.

中文翻译：

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库存过时风险下的间歇性需求预测

Croston 和其他相关方法，例如 Syntetos-Boylan 近似 (SBA)，是文献中推荐用于间歇性需求预测的最流行的方法。然而，这些传统方法并不适用于库存过时，因为它们不会在零需求时期更新其预测。因此，为了增加适用于库存过时问题的方法，我们提出了一种新方法，该方法赋予 SBA 方法灵活性。所提出的方法通过对需求间间隔使用不同的平滑常数来更新每个时期的预测。该方法在考虑逐渐和突然过时的模拟数据集和来自汽车行业的经验数据集上进行了广泛的检查。该研究不仅限于评估预测准确性，还侧重于所考虑方法的库存绩效。研究结果表明所提出方法的有效性，特别是在过时风险增加的情况下。