In this paper, an environmental multimedia modeling system (EMMS) that combines a risk assessment with a Monte Carlo method (MCM) was used to explore the interaction between groundwater and surface water with respect to chemical exposure and risk. The EMMS-MCM simulations incorporated several key influencing factors that are inherent in traditional predictions of subsurface and surface-water interactions, including soil permeability coefficients and parameters such as hydraulic conductivity, density, recharge, layers, and depth. These influencing factors are generally associated with the largest sources of uncertainty in modeling and pose significant challenges to water management and to the optimal allocation of water resources. A case study involving benzene at the Trail Road landfill site located in the Ottawa–Carlton area of Canada is presented to illustrate the use of the EMMS-MCM approach. The model results are verified by comparisons to the results of groundwater and surface-water investigations in the landfill. The EMMS-MCM results are evaluated using a risk quotient (RQ) risk assessment method to quantify environmental risk. The EMMS-MCM simulations can be used to support hazardous field work and contribute to environmental management by predicting the possible consequences of hazardous chemical contaminations in surface waters and groundwater. The integration of the EMMS-MCM and RQ approaches represents an appropriate tool for the accurate assessment of long-term pollutant risks and environmental management of surface- and groundwater resources. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:877–886. © 2021 SETAC

中文翻译：

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环境多媒体建模系统在健康风险评估中的应用：关键影响因素和不确定性研究

在本文中，环境多媒体建模系统 (EMMS) 将风险评估与蒙特卡罗方法 (MCM) 相结合，用于探索地下水和地表水在化学品暴露和风险方面的相互作用。EMMS-MCM 模拟结合了地下和地表水相互作用的传统预测中固有的几个关键影响因素，包括土壤渗透系数和参数，如导水率、密度、补给、层数和深度。这些影响因素通常与建模中最大的不确定性来源有关，并对水资源管理和水资源优化配置提出了重大挑战。介绍了位于加拿大渥太华-卡尔顿地区的 Trail Road 垃圾填埋场的苯的案例研究，以说明 EMMS-MCM 方法的使用。模型结果通过与垃圾填埋场地下水和地表水调查结果的比较得到验证。EMMS-MCM 结果使用风险商 (RQ) 风险评估方法进行评估，以量化环境风险。EMMS-MCM 模拟可用于支持危险的现场工作，并通过预测地表水和地下水中危险化学污染的可能后果来促进环境管理。EMMS-MCM 和 RQ 方法的集成是准确评估长期污染物风险和地表和地下水资源环境管理的合适工具。模型结果通过与垃圾填埋场地下水和地表水调查结果的比较得到验证。EMMS-MCM 结果使用风险商 (RQ) 风险评估方法进行评估，以量化环境风险。EMMS-MCM 模拟可用于支持危险的现场工作，并通过预测地表水和地下水中危险化学污染的可能后果来促进环境管理。EMMS-MCM 和 RQ 方法的集成是准确评估长期污染物风险和地表和地下水资源环境管理的合适工具。模型结果通过与垃圾填埋场地下水和地表水调查结果的比较得到验证。EMMS-MCM 结果使用风险商 (RQ) 风险评估方法进行评估，以量化环境风险。EMMS-MCM 模拟可用于支持危险的现场工作，并通过预测地表水和地下水中危险化学污染的可能后果来促进环境管理。EMMS-MCM 和 RQ 方法的集成是准确评估长期污染物风险和地表和地下水资源环境管理的合适工具。EMMS-MCM 模拟可用于支持危险的现场工作，并通过预测地表水和地下水中危险化学污染的可能后果来促进环境管理。EMMS-MCM 和 RQ 方法的集成是准确评估长期污染物风险和地表和地下水资源环境管理的合适工具。EMMS-MCM 模拟可用于支持危险的现场工作，并通过预测地表水和地下水中危险化学污染的可能后果来促进环境管理。EMMS-MCM 和 RQ 方法的集成是准确评估长期污染物风险和地表和地下水资源环境管理的合适工具。Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021；17：877-886。© 2021 SETAC