Wet waste hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) has the potential to make economically competitive and environmentally sustainable biocrude. However, there are few studies available on the continuous-flow wet waste HTL process. Therefore, stochastic techno-economic analysis (TEA) is needed to evaluate the economic feasibility and risks of the wet waste HTL process. This work leveraged our previous uncertainty quantification work on algae HTL and in-house wet waste HTL continuous system testing data. A “component additivity” model was developed to predict HTL product yields and qualities from different wet waste compositions. With the established HTL yield model, a process reduced-order model (ROM) coupled with an economic model was built in Microsoft Excel® to replace the rigorous but computationally intensive Aspen Plus® model for uncertainty analysis. The proposed stochastic TEA approach using the ROM reduces the computational time for the analysis by 2000 times, compared to the full Aspen-based model. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to quantify the uncertainties from feedstock composition, HTL yield model, aqueous-phase product treatment, utility consumption, and equipment sizing and costing. The stochastic TEA indicates that the MBSP for wet waste HTL ranges from $2.65/gge ($0.75/L) to $4.93/gge ($1.41/L) (10th and 90th percentiles) with a median of $3.55/gge ($1.01/L). Feed moisture, HTL reactor model, and capital investment are the main contributors to the economic uncertainty of the wet waste HTL process. Uncertainty in the MBSP could be reduced by roughly 50% if uncertainties in the feed moisture and HTL reaction yield model can be effectively controlled or decreased.

湿废液热液化（HTL）有潜力使经济竞争性和环境可持续性的生物原油成为可能。但是，关于连续流湿废HTL工艺的研究很少。因此，需要随机技术经济分析（TEA）来评估湿法HTL工艺的经济可行性和风险。这项工作利用了我们先前对藻类HTL和室内湿废物HTL连续系统测试数据进行的不确定性量化工作。建立了“组分可加性”模型，以预测来自不同湿废物成分的HTL产品的产量和质量。利用已建立的HTL成品率模型，在MicrosoftExcel®中建立了带有经济模型的过程降阶模型（ROM），以取代用于不确定性分析的严格但计算量大的AspenPlus®模型。与基于Aspen的完整模型相比，使用ROM提出的随机TEA方法将分析的计算时间减少了2000倍。进行了蒙特卡洛模拟，以量化来自原料组成，HTL收率模型，水相产品处理，公用事业消耗以及设备尺寸和成本的不确定性。随机TEA表示，湿废HTL的MBSP从$ 2.65 / gge（$ 0.75 / L）到$ 4.93 / gge（$ 1.41 / L）（第10和90％百分数），中位数为$ 3.55 / gge（$ 1.01 / L）。进料水分，HTL反应器模型和资本投资是造成湿式废物HTL工艺经济不确定性的主要因素。如果可以有效控制或减少进料水分和HTL反应收率模型的不确定性，则MBSP的不确定性可以降低约50％。