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Examination of Various Feature Selection Approaches for Daily Precipitation Downscaling in Different Climates
Water Resources Management ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-07 , DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02701-6
Ahmad Jafarzadeh , Mohsen Pourreza-Bilondi , Abbas Khashei Siuki , Javad Ramezani Moghadam

To turn General Circulation Models (GCMs) projection toward better assessment, it is crucial to employ a downscaling process to get more reliability of their outputs. The data-driven based downscaling techniques recently have been used widely, and predictor selection is usually considered as the main challenge in these methods. Hence, this study aims to examine the most common approaches of feature selection in the downscaling of daily rainfall in two different climates in Iran. So, the measured daily rainfall and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) predictors were collected, and Support Vector Machine (SVM) was considered as downscaling methods. Also, a complete set of comparative tests considering all dimensions was employed to identify the best subset of predictors. Results indicated that the skill of various selection methods in different tests is significantly different. Despite a few partial superiorities viewed between selection models, they not presented an obvious distinction. However, regarding all related factors, it may be deduced that the Stepwise Regression Analysis (SRA) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) are better than others. Also, the finding of this study showed that there are some weaknesses in the interpretation of SRA, so concerning this issue, it may be concluded that BMA has more reliable performance. Furthermore, results indicated that generally, the downscaling procedure has more accuracy in arid climate than cold-semi arid climate.



中文翻译:

对不同气候下每日降水降尺度的各种特征选择方法的检验

为了将通用流通模型(GCM)的预测转向更好的评估,至关重要的是采用缩减规模的流程来获得其输出的更高可靠性。最近,基于数据驱动的降尺度技术已被广泛使用,预测器选择通常被认为是这些方法中的主要挑战。因此,本研究旨在研究伊朗两种不同气候下的每日降水缩减中最常用的特征选择方法。因此,收集了每日测得的降水量和国家环境预测中心/国家大气研究中心(NCEP / NCAR)的预测指标,并将支持向量机(SVM)视为降尺度方法。同样,考虑了所有维度的一整套比较测试被用来确定最佳的预测子集。结果表明,各种选择方法在不同测试中的技能差异显着。尽管选择模型之间存在一些局部优势,但它们并没有表现出明显的区别。但是,关于所有相关因素,可以推断出逐步回归分析(SRA)和贝叶斯模型平均(BMA)优于其他方法。此外,这项研究的结果表明,在SRA的解释上存在一些弱点,因此关于此问题,可以得出结论,BMA具有更可靠的性能。此外,结果表明,在干旱气候条件下,降尺度程序的准确性通常高于冷半干旱气候条件。尽管选择模型之间存在一些局部优势,但它们并没有表现出明显的区别。但是,关于所有相关因素,可以推断出逐步回归分析(SRA)和贝叶斯模型平均(BMA)优于其他方法。此外,这项研究的结果表明,在SRA的解释上存在一些弱点,因此关于此问题,可以得出结论,BMA具有更可靠的性能。此外,结果表明,在干旱气候条件下,降尺度程序比在寒冷半干旱气候条件下具有更高的精度。尽管选择模型之间存在一些局部优势,但它们并没有表现出明显的区别。但是,关于所有相关因素,可以推断出逐步回归分析(SRA)和贝叶斯模型平均(BMA)优于其他方法。此外,这项研究的结果表明,在SRA的解释上存在一些弱点,因此关于此问题,可以得出结论,BMA具有更可靠的性能。此外,结果表明,在干旱气候条件下,降尺度程序比在寒冷半干旱气候条件下具有更高的精度。这项研究的发现表明,对SRA的解释存在一些弱点,因此,就这一问题而言,可以得出结论,即BMA具有更可靠的性能。此外,结果表明,在干旱气候条件下,降尺度程序比在寒冷半干旱气候条件下具有更高的精度。这项研究的发现表明,对SRA的解释存在一些弱点,因此,就这一问题而言,可以得出结论,即BMA具有更可靠的性能。此外,结果表明,在干旱气候条件下,降尺度程序比在寒冷半干旱气候条件下具有更高的精度。

更新日期:2021-01-07
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