Planning for precision agriculture requires a better understanding of the plant’s response to climate. The economy of Qorveh, in Iran, is severely affected by wheat yield fluctuations. In this study, multivariate statistical methods were used to identify important climatic factors affecting rainfed wheat yield and to simulate yield variations based on these impact factors. A new method was introduced to initiate seed germination. After determining the germination time, the wheat growth period was divided into seven stages based on the growing degree day (GDD). Forty-four climatic variables and indices related to the first six stages were used to perform factor analysis and to develop a model for predicting pre-harvest yield. The results showed that 91.5% of the total variance of 44 variables can be explained by 9 factors. Eighty-five percent of yield variations can be explained and modeled (R = 0.92) using five of these factors. This indicates that rainfed wheat yield is highly correlated with climate conditions, and this relationship is well simulated by statistical methods. According to the results, the significant trend of climatic variables was identified as the main reason for the yield growth trend in Qorveh. The yield showed a direct relationship with precipitation and relative humidity and an inverse relationship with air temperature and sunshine. The impact intensity of variables on yield included precipitation, relative humidity, sunshine, and air temperature, respectively. The results also showed that the yield was more affected by climatic variables of spring and May than other seasons and months, respectively.

规划精准农业需要对植物对气候的反应有更好的了解。伊朗的Qorveh经济受到小麦单产波动的严重影响。在这项研究中，使用多元统计方法来确定影响雨育小麦单产的重要气候因素，并基于这些影响因素模拟单产变化。引入了一种新的方法来启动种子发芽。确定发芽时间后，根据生长日（GDD）将小麦的生长期分为七个阶段。与前六个阶段有关的四十四个气候变量和指数被用来进行因子分析并建立一个预测收获前产量的模型。结果表明，由9个因素可以解释44个变量的总方差的91.5％。R = 0.92），使用其中五个因素。这表明雨养小麦的单产与气候条件高度相关，这种关系可以通过统计方法很好地模拟。根据结果​​，气候变量的显着趋势被确定为Qorveh产量增长趋势的主要原因。产量与降水和相对湿度成正比，与气温和日照成反比。变量对产量的影响强度分别包括降水，相对湿度，日照和气温。结果还表明，与其他季节和月份相比，春季和五月的气候变量对产量的影响更大。