Increased frequency of droughts in the recent decade (2002, 2004, 2009, 2014, 2015 being drought years) and the severity of their impact makes drought prediction an inherent component of forecasts for drought mitigation and preparedness. The research and development activities cannot prove their full potential unless they can produce a long lead skillful prediction of extreme conditions like flood or drought. During 2014 and 2015, India experienced deficit monsoon for two successive years. The present study explores the various factors responsible for the droughts during 2014 and 2015 and how well the state-of-the-art coupled model capture the consecutive droughts. The study shows that not only tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) but also extratropical SSTs can influence the rainfall over India. Extratropical SSTs impacted the rainfall during 2014 by modulating the strength and location of subtropical jet and tropospheric temperature gradient. On the other hand, tropical SSTs over Pacific Ocean influenced the rainfall during 2015 by modulating the atmospheric teleconnections via Walker circulation. The present-day models considered in this study could not capture consecutively the Indian monsoon droughts and the associated atmosphere and ocean conditions.

在最近十年（2002年，2004年，2009年，2014年，2015年为干旱年份）中干旱的频率增加，其影响的严重性使干旱预测成为缓解干旱和备灾预报的固有组成部分。除非研发活动能够对洪水或干旱等极端状况做出长而有力的预测，否则无法证明其全部潜力。2014年和2015年，印度连续两年经历了季风不足。本研究探讨了造成2014年和2015年干旱的各种因素，以及最先进的耦合模型如何捕获连续干旱。研究表明，不仅热带海表温度（SST），而且温带海表温度也会影响印度的降雨。通过调节亚热带急流的强度和位置以及对流层温度梯度，温带海温影响了2014年的降雨。另一方面，2015年，太平洋上的热带海表温度通过沃克环流调节大气遥相关，从而影响了降雨。本研究中考虑的当前模型无法连续捕获印度季风干旱以及相关的大气和海洋状况。